Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin’s meteoric rise is costing some investors billions

Bitcoin’s meteoric rise is rippling through financial markets, and not everyone is enjoying the ride.

The scorching-hot cryptocurrency has tentacles that stretch into many different parts of the investment landscape, and some traders are finding out the hard way how much influence it can wield.

Just ask the unfortunate souls who have been trying to short chip makers and learning the hard way that their share prices are closely linked to interest in bitcoin. The stocks of companies like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which make chips used in the mining of bitcoin – a process that involves heaps of computers solving complex equations – have surged alongside the cryptocurrency, destroying the short positions.

Short sellers betting against those two companies have lost a combined $1.8 billion this year as Nvidia has skyrocketed 57% and AMD has climbed 16%, according to data provided by financial analytics firm S3 Partners .

And the fallout is already beginning.

Dallas-based hedge fund Carlson Capital’s $1 billion Black Diamond Thematic fund lost 14.2% this year through July, and blamed bitcoin for the hit, according to a client update reviewed by Business Insider.

The fund chose chipmakers as its top short theme earlier this year, citing “high inventories, double ordering, massive capex supply responses and actual pockets of weakening demand in smartphones, autos, and the Chinese optical market.”

Needless to say, that hasn’t translated into weak share prices – and now Carlson has an axe to grind with the massively popular cryptocurrencies they see keeping the space afloat to an unsustainable degree.

“The sector has turned into something of a bubble characterized best by the surge in GPU stocks, Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia, driven by a cryptocurrency mania,” portfolio managers Richard Maraviglia and Matthew Barkoff, wrote in the fund’s second-quarter investor letter. “We believe the other side of this incredibly powerful consensus move in technology will be very profitable for us but to date, it has been a significant drag on performance.”

As for those directly trading bitcoin, the ride has been bumpy, but ultimately quite lucrative. It’s up almost 200% in 2017 alone, minting big profits for those traders willing to take a chance on such a speculative entity.

But by no means does the burgeoning cryptocurrency mania start and end with bitcoin. There’s also Ethereum , which has been gobbling up market share, surging from 5% of the cryptocurrency market in January to 30% as of June 22. In fact, up until June, Ethereum was on track to surpass bitcoin as the world’s largest digital currency.

Regardless of whether bitcoin, Ethereum, or another vehicle strikes your fancy, the process of mining for new blocks requires the same kinds of semiconductors. So as cryptocurrencies go, so do the stock prices of the companies making those chips.

And as Carlson doubles down on its bearish chipmaker stance, other hedge funds are proving happy to chase the runaway performance of cryptocurrencies.

Last Friday, activist investor Elliott Management disclosed a 6% stake in NXP Semiconductors , and said that it’s pushing for a higher price in the company’s pending $38 billion sale to Qualcomm.

Elliott did not specifically cite the white-hot cryptocurrency industry and its effect on chipmakers in a regulatory filing. After all, semiconductors are also crucial components for smartphones, a familiar stomping ground for the world’s biggest company. So any bet on the industry can also be read as a play on Apple.

Ultimately, even if Elliott’s investment has nothing to do with cryptocurrencies, there are some market watchers that will interpret it that way.

And that line of thinking represents the new reality facing investors of all types: This is an area of the market that’s attracting and churning through billions of dollars, so either adjust to it or risk getting caught off-guard.

Source – Business Insider

Advertisement

Click To Join Our Community Telegram Group

Vladimir Ribakov

Following 11+ years of trading experience, trading my own accounts as well as for hedge funds and brokerages, I have decided to fulfill my destiny and to personally mentor Forex and Commodities traders. When I released the “Broker Nightmare” (software that hides trades from brokers) 8 years ago, I found an overwhelming number of frustrated people who genuinely wanted to learn how to trade the Forex market, but instead found themselves scammed and misled. Over the years I have also release other trading systems based on my trading strategies, and met a lot of people on my worldwide Forex seminars. We’ve formed a close Forex community and we meet once or twice a year in various locations in Europe.

View Comments

Recent Posts

AUDNZD Short Term Forecast Update And Follow Up

Hi Traders! AUDNZD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On September 19th,…

14 hours ago

AUDJPY Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast

Hi Traders! AUDJPY technical analysis and short term forecast is here. We do our analysis…

15 hours ago

NZDCHF Short Term Forecast Update And Follow Up

Hi Traders! NZDCHF short term forecast update and follow up is here. On September 5th,…

2 days ago

GBPCAD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast

Hi Traders! GBPCAD technical analysis and short term forecast post is here. We do our…

2 days ago

Stocks, Bonds Rise As Traders Cheer Treasury Pick: Markets Wrap

Stocks and Treasuries rose as traders welcomed Donald Trump’s pick of Scott Bessent for US Treasury Secretary, betting the…

3 days ago

Weekly Summary And Review 22nd November 2024

Hi Traders! Arvinth here from the Home Trader Club team. The weekly summary and, review of November…

6 days ago