Welcome to this week’s Forex Forecast. As we step into December, we enter a unique trading environment:
✔ The markets often experience the classic “Santa Claus Rally” effect
✔ At the same time, volatility tends to decline slowly as we approach year-end
This combination creates opportunities — but also requires discipline, patience, and realistic expectations.
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Main Bias: Short-term bearish pressure while long-term bullish cycle still intact
Key Levels: 1.1650 – 1.1780 resistance zone
Trading Focus: Sell setups if resistance holds; Buy dips only if bullish structure rebuilds
The broader bullish cycle on EURUSD is not yet complete, and I continue to expect an eventual move toward 1.2200 and possibly higher before the weekly cycle finishes.
On the daily chart, the pair completed three strong bullish waves, which typically leads to corrective behavior — either:
Both remain possible.
Dropping to the 4-hour chart, price action shows:
Three lower highs & lower lows
Developing ABCD structure toward the downside
Potential completion of the daily correction zone
The area between 1.1650 – 1.1780 (including the psychological 1.1700 round number) is a critical resistance cluster, combining:
Multi-swing peaks
Volume-profile balanced zone
Classical supply area
Bearish MACD divergence pressure building
Bearish Plan:
As long as price remains below 1.1780, watch for bearish triggers:
Resistance rejections
Bearish divergence on MACD
Failure to create higher highs
Bullish Plan:
Only if the daily chart forms clear higher highs & higher lows above the balance zone — then buy-the-dip becomes valid again.
Main Bias: Bullish continuation short-term; potential long-term bearish reversal forming
Key Support Zone: 205.00 – 205.50
Trading Focus: Buy retracements while monthly peak develops
We haven’t covered GBPJPY for a while, but now it becomes extremely attractive again.
On the monthly chart, GBPJPY approaches major supply levels and is completing a triple wave rally alongside a forming monthly bearish divergence.
This suggests that a massive long-term reversal is building — but not yet ready.
So far, the pair continues to push higher.
Weekly divergence is developing but not yet complete
Daily chart still shows higher highs & higher lows
No bearish divergence on MACD daily → bullish pressure intact
The structure is clean: higher highs & higher lows.
The next buy zone sits around:
✔ 205.00 – 205.50 demand zone
✔ Broken resistance turning to support
✔ Volume profile balance area
✔ Daily technical support
As long as price holds above 205.00 – 205.50:
➡️ Look for buys on retracements
The pair still has room toward the major monthly supply before a larger downturn begins.
Main Bias: Overbought and vulnerable; two major scenarios possible
Key Levels: Watch range and last swing low for breakout
Trading Focus: Prepare for either final push to new high or breakdown from range
While Silver printed new all-time highs, Gold is lagging behind, creating an interesting divergence.
Gold is sitting at very extended, overbought conditions on higher timeframes:
1️⃣ Bullish extension scenario:
Daily chart completes another push up, then forms a bearish divergence → ideal topping structure for sell opportunities.
2️⃣ Bearish breakdown scenario:
Daily structure already forming two-wave correction.
If the range breaks down and price closes below the recent low, momentum could accelerate sharply.
This opens a surprising but technically valid downside projection toward:
👉 $3,500 – $3,400
(yes, aggressive — but structurally possible)
Watch the range boundaries
Breakdown AND close below the low → triggers bearish plan
Failed breakdown → look for continuation to a new peak and then divergence for a sell
Bearish Setup:
Sell rallies ONLY if:
✔ Range breaks down
✔ New highs form with divergence
✔ Fake high forms (break above swing + close below)
Main Bias: Rally is temporary; bearish continuation expected afterward
Key Resistance Zone: 95,000 – 98,000 and up to 106,000
Trading Focus: Sell zones at top of the corrective rally
Bitcoin remains one of the most discussed assets lately.
I remain with my long-standing view:
➡️ The bearish move is not over
➡️ Current rallies are corrective, not impulsive
Lower highs & lower lows remain intact
RSI rebounded from oversold → supports a temporary bullish correction
MACD likely to form bearish hidden divergence as price approaches resistance
Between:
👉 95,000 – 98,000
and extended range:
👉 Up to 106,000
This area contains:
Broken supports acting as resistance
Last significant swing highs
Major supply zone
As long as the following supports hold:
Broken resistance acting as fresh support
Last low acting as demand
Bitcoin may continue its push upward before the next major sell-off.
Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.
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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!
Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club
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