Forex Weekly Forecast (June 30 – July 4, 2025)

Hello traders! I’m Vladimir Ribakov from the Home Trader Club, and I’m excited to present this week’s Forex Weekly Forecast for June 30 – July 4, 2025. As always, a big thanks to Eight Cap for supporting our trading community. With Eight Cap, you can enjoy exclusive access to the Home Trader Club, full access to all our trading tools, semi-automated systems, and even private mentoring sessions with me. Check out the link in the description below for more details.

 

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Let’s dive into the charts and explore this week’s trade setups for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold (XAU/USD).

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📈 EUR/USD – Approaching Peak, Reversal Signs Developing

Last week, we anticipated a final bullish rally before a possible reversal in EUR/USD. This scenario has unfolded, and the pair is now approaching a significant resistance zone.

• On the weekly chart, our custom Bollinger Band indicator shows we are around the first duplication zone of the breakout candle, lining up with a strong historical resistance area (1.17–1.19).

 

 

• On the daily chart, a clear bearish divergence is forming.

 

 

• On the 4-hour chart, I’m looking for fake highs and confirmed bearish divergence before entering sell setups.

 

 

Momentum Snapshot:

• 1-Month: +3.5% (strong bullish trend)

• 7-Day: +2.0%

• 24-Hour: +0.12% (momentum shrinking)

✅ Trade Plan:
Once bearish divergence completes with fake highs, I’ll be looking for short opportunities with targets at 1.15–1.14, possibly even lower.

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💷 GBP/USD – Rally Complete, Bearish Pressure Building

Following our previous analysis, GBP/USD completed its ABCD correction and rallied to a key supply zone. Much like the euro, I believe the pound is forming a peak.

 

 

• From the Bollinger Band breakout, the pair is at or near the first duplication zone.

 

 

• Daily chart shows a growing MACD divergence, indicating fading bullish momentum.

 

 

• Volume Profile points to a critical support area around 1.34–1.35, which may become the next major downside target.

 

 

Key Reversal Zone: 1.37–1.40
Potential Target Zone: 1.34–1.32

Meanwhile in the short term these retraces are very likely to happen before the reversal takes place

 

 

Another possible scenario here is that the price might create a zig zag setup instead of a false break which means try to create two waves down, try to rally but not above the previous high and then might move lower after the breakout of the most recent uptrend line.

 

Momentum Snapshot:

• 1-Month: +1.5%

• 7-Day: +2.0%

• 24-Hour: Momentum shrinking

✅ Trade Plan:
Wait for bearish divergence and fake highs on lower timeframes. If confirmed, I’ll look to short with targets around 1.34 and 1.32. A zigzag correction scenario is also possible before a deeper drop.

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💴 USD/JPY – Bearish Structure Intact, Watching the Breakout

My bias on USD/JPY remains bearish. Last week, we looked for signs of reversal after a potential peak. The pair is now forming a ranging rally that failed to break previous highs.

• If USD/JPY breaks below current range, I expect a retest and then a continuation lower.

 

 

• The expected path is toward completing the double cycle to the downside.

 

 

• Volume Profile and Key Trading Levels align with this bearish view.

 

Momentum Snapshot:

• All timeframes (1M, 7D, 24H): ~0%
  This reflects indecision and lack of clear directional momentum, which often precedes breakouts.

✅ Trade Plan:
I’m looking to sell the rallies, especially if the pair breaks the current support zone. Divergence signs on the 4H chart and trendline breaks will trigger short setups.

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🪙 Gold (XAU/USD) – Breakdown Confirmed, Selling Rallies

Gold finally broke below the trendline and key volume level we discussed last week.

 

 

The move confirmed a bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows.

 

 

• I expected to see to see it lower as long as there are no surprises I believe any retraces here should bring gold further down. The way I would want to see the gold moving here is ideally to complete two waves or at least some sort of a range here. We have a major rising trend line, which could be retested and of course previously created low, broken resistance become support.

 

 

 

• This would be the ideal zone for gold For the bearish side. So any rallies for me should be considered as a sell opportunity as long as the recent peak holds.

 

 

Fundamental Note:
Geopolitical uncertainty, including recent trade war rumors and tensions with Iran, could create volatility. However, as long as the recent peak holds, gold remains under bearish pressure.

✅ Trade Plan:
Any rallies toward the key resistance zones will be considered sell opportunities, with expectations for a move lower toward major support zones.

🔧 Pro Trading Tip

Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club