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On the weekly chart, the price after creating the small double wave shown in the screenshot below is currently slowing down (as we can see on the moving averages of the MACD indicator). This might be the beginning of some corrective mode and this corrective mode might happen in the form of two waves.
Or alternatively, it might happen in the form of a range, until a new trend will start.
The way I see this pair, drops might provide some good opportunities for the bullish view. On the daily chart, we have the first leg pushing here in some sort of three waves and ending up with some sort of double top with a bearish divergence bouncing directly from the 200 moving averages.
We also had a beautiful harami candle pattern at the psychological level 1.25 and this currently delivers us a corrective cycle.
Looking at the H4 chart we have the bigger two waves that have formed (that is we have three waves higher followed by double wave down). This can be measured in two ways as shown in the screenshots below.
Currently, the price is approaching the 50% fibonacci retracement zone of the triple wave. We do have a strong support zone that coincides with the same level and also the psychological round number 1.20 and we start to see some slow down on the histogram of the MACD indicator.
It’s too early to judge if this will be the start of a new trend. But I definitely think that in the short term with the slow down I believe the area shown in the screenshot below should be the one where we may start to see bullish divergence forming and the price might provide some interesting bullish opportunities in the short term.
Based on the Forex Crystal Ball statistics we can see that 21, 23, and 24 are critical days. We also have a very strong support zone as shown in the screenshot below. This is where we might start to see some pushes to the upside. My short term view is bullish here.
In this pair for the long term, my view is bullish and I expect rallies to happen as shown in the screenshot below.
For the short term view, I expect the zone shown in the screenshot below to become the top. This critical area that has formed based on the weekly and daily chart might potentially end with the bearish divergence. I believe we might face some reactions to the downside from this strong resistance zone.
In the short term, I definitely think that this area might deliver us the correction before further continuation higher.
Also, another important fact to pay attention to is that, out of the last seven weeks, six of them are very bullish. We also have a straight band to band move on the Bollinger bands (making about 50% deviation currently). Normally such things put more bearish pressure.
The daily chart starts to slow down and I believe the H4 chart might start to slow down as well and provide us bearish divergence. I would be looking for bearish evidences around the strong resistance zone shown in the screenshot below to deliver us some bearish opportunities.
Based on the Crystal Ball statistics we can see that the price is approaching the critical days 24 and 20. We could also see that the price is nearing strong resistance zones. The closer we get to these zones the stronger the bearish pressure is going to be. In my POV we are going to see some serious fights between buyers and sells around these zones.
On the weekly chart, the price has created a triple cycle with a bearish divergence. We may now expect a potential correction to happen in the form of two waves.
Or alternatively in the form of a range.
On the daily chart, we have the first leg to the downside and I believe the price might be exposed to something like what is shown in the screenshot below (if it creates a deeper second leg to the downside). The second leg might happen in the form of two waves.
Or alternatively, even if it happens in the form of a range, my plan here is to sell the rallies with bearish evidences.
On the H4 chart, we had a bullish divergence and then a corrective movement is happening now. The area shown in the screenshot below is from where we may expect the price to move lower.
On the daily chart, we could see that the price is currently slowing down, we have a bullish divergence which came in to play. So expecting a corrective cycle totally makes sense here. The correction might happen in the form of two waves.
Or alternatively in the form of a range. This or the other way around buy retraces with bullish evidences is my plan here.
On the H4 chart, we have the first leg to the upside and the price has created this first leg in the form of a bullish trending pattern. The way I see this pair we may look to buy retraces with bullish evidences.
Or even if it happens in the form of a range, my view still remains the same here.
On the H1 chart during last week we had a fantastic opportunity, we had three waves to the upside followed by two waves correction with bullish hidden divergence coming in play and the price delivered the continuation higher.
Currently, the bearish divergence is a bit expanded so retraces are still for the buys here.
Oil is bullish and it makes totally sense because the economy slowly started to open up so it definitely makes sense to see the price normalizing themselves. On the daily chart, we have a triple wave down, so the way I see this we are currently in a corrective cycle.
So on the shorter view, I expect the zone shown in the screenshot below to provide some temporary resistance. The closer we get to this resistance zone I believe the stronger the bearish pressure would be.
Note: Too much optimism normally provides the opposite direction. The majority of the traders and investors in Oil have started to be too optimistic right now.
So in my POV the area shown in the screenshot below is from where we may expect some corrections to happen before further continuation higher. Buy retraces with bullish evidences would be my plan here.
On the H4 chart after the three waves to the upside and the bearish divergence, we got the two waves correction.
If that’s the two waves correction then we may expect the price to continue potentially higher after the breakout of the most recent downtrend line.
This scenario is very much possible because on the daily chart after the triple wave down currently the price is in an expanded correction here until the bearish divergence would complete or rebuild itself before the next move down.
If the price breaks above the trend line in the form of a bullish trending pattern then we may likely assume that the second leg is going to be build up before the next move down.
Alternatively, if the price builds a bearish trending pattern then this means we already have the top after the ABCD correction and the bearish trend is in play. If this happens then this bullish view will be invalidated.
Personally I would not be surprised if the price creates the two waves as shown in the screenshot below until price completes a bearish hidden divergence before trend continuation but it’s too early to talk about this.
On the weekly chart, we have a strong move down.
I don’t think the price has already hit the bottom based on the long term view (even though its too early to judge right now). But in the short term, I definitely think that the drop shown in the screenshot below is coming to an end.
I would like to see here one more drop to complete the second false break and the bullish divergence. Then by the break above the falling wedge pattern, I would be looking for some bullish opportunities at least in the shorter term.
On the daily chart, I wanted to see the price complete the bullish trending pattern, ideally to clean the level shown in the screenshot below (slightly above 10,000).
If the price moves as I expected then we may expect the price to continue in the bullish direction, ideally from the bottom of the consolidation shown in the screenshot below with bullish evidences.
Also very important to remind here that recently we all were exposed to Bitcoin Halving and it might have its impact on the cryptocurrency industry.
I have more instruments in my list which I will cover this week in the Live Trading Rooms in Traders Academy Club.
Note: Bullish evidences could be in the form of candle stick patterns, false breaks, trend line breakout etc… supporting the bullish view and bearish evidences could be in the form of candle stick patterns, false breaks, trend line breakout etc… supporting the bearish view.
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Yours for your success,
Certified Financial Technician