Hi Traders! Forex Weekly Forecast Text Format October 6th to October 11th 2019 is here. My team and I always continue to work very hard for you and your success and as we do every week, we have prepared two great gifts for you!
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In this pair there were two critical levels that we wanted to see before the price starts to move down. One of them was the possibility of double top with bearish divergence and the second one is if the price breaks above the first critical level then the next area to look for is slightly above the 200 MA closer to the area of 109, 110 and then a move down. Price moved as per the first scenario, it was blocked with double top and bearish divergence then it moved lower.
Currently according to the weekly cycle there is still possibility for deeper correction but the daily is missing its classical bullish structure. In my POV based on the current scenario, the better chance according to the price action is, we would see on the H4 chart some attempt to create the second leg correction, push it down again to provide some bullish divergence and then we would have to see how the price reacts.
If the price breaks below the 61.8 in one straight movement then it would simply be a bearish call.
If the price holds this level, provides two waves (triple double structure) with bullish divergence and breaks above the most recent downtrend line then there is a good chance that the price would continue further to the upside. So I think this pair would be busy in fighting this week to create the next direction. Currently on the daily chart the price is in a critical zone, if the price holds here and provides the two waves then it might be the beginning of the rally.
Or alternatively if the price continues and breaks through this zone then there is a good chance that the price is heading lower.
In my POV based on the current price action this pair is very tricky.
In this pair the idea from previous week was to buy retraces, we got the retraces and rally exactly as we expected. The rally still didn’t take us towards the most important area and honestly right now this pair has all the reasons to be suspicious, we have the bearish divergence developing on the MACD in the H4 chart. On the daily chart the price is already resisting on the massive area shown in the screenshot, we can also see the spikes of weakness (the bulls are getting weaker they don’t manage to hold the positions).
So the way I see this there is a good chance that the rallies might turn to be fake and if we get new rallies then it might be a good opportunity to start looking for the sells. So if the price gets closer to the area shown in the screenshot with the bearish divergence developing, we may then start looking for sell opportunities with more bearish evidences.
Alternatively if the price builds lower highs, lower lows then we may look to sell the rallies with more bearish evidences.
The reason to do so is because of the fact that the weekly is under corrective mode by making the extreme divergence and I expect to see clear two waves as a correction, that’s why sell the rallies would be the main plan. The way it looks right now if we get the rallies I would be looking for sells with bearish evidences.
In this pair our idea from previous week was to look for buys until the critical level holds. Once of the scenarios we were following was three waves to the upside, retrace and continuation. The other one was deeper correction down, break of the trend line and buys. The price moved exactly as per scenario 2 currently it is creating a very interesting structure of false breakout, band to band movement and as long as this case holds I think this pair is gaining its bullish structure.
On the daily chart the price is stuck inside a range and I would definitely like to see the price breaking above the top of this range (it might create one more fake low before it moves to the upside).
The aggressive approach here would be, we got the structure of higher highs, higher lows and if the price creates two waves correction or a range, after the breakout we may then expect possible continuation.
As per the weekly the last divergence is yet bullish, as per the daily the last divergence was bearish but we are facing the corrective cycle in two waves meaning we are getting ready for a possible corrective cycle of the weekly and this is pretty much why I am after the buys here.
In this pair our plan from previous week was to look for a correction and then to look for clearer structures. We got the correction and also we have the higher highs, higher lows structure on the daily, the price is currently building up two waves correction, in addition to this we also have a bullish hidden divergence.
Based on the fibo levels we have three critical zones that has formed and the massive one is around the 161.8 fibo zone. From these areas we might be looking for the buy evidences. If you want to be more conservative then wait for the price to break above the downtrend line, you may then look for buys with more bullish evidences.
Personally due to the way that this structure is building, I think the closer we get to the 100 fibo level or ideally 161.8 fibo level the stronger the reaction of this pair would be. Based on the Crystal Ball statistics we could see that the price is approaching a critical zone for buys starting from the 9th of the month and going through the next days the pressure is getting stronger for the buys (we also see supportive zones). So statistics also shows us that the bullish pressure is about to get in with high probability.
In this pair our plan from previous week was to look for the buys from the bottom of the range and this pair delivered. Currently we can see the zig zags, one of the reasons it is like that is because of previous week’s fundamental events. The weekly is still bullish while the daily is showing us divergence and we have lots of spike around the massive clearance area where we also have the psychological area of 1.
In my POV as long as this area survives I would be expecting this pair to deliver some short term corrections to the downside. On the H4 chart we can see that the price is breaking below the trend line.
The price is creating lower highs, lower lows on the H1 chart, false break and convergence came into play, now we are continuing to develop this structure. So in my POV I would be looking for sell opportunities.
I would expect a correction here and correction could be tricky as it might happen in two waves or a range. This or the other way around during the week I think looking for sell opportunities from any reactions to the upside would the right thing to do. Based on the Crystal Ball statistics this pair is looking great for a top around the 5th, the closer we get there the stronger the pressure become and there is a good chance that we are going to play here in a corrective mode.
Personally I think as long as the top holds we may expect some correction in this pair.
Note: Keep an eye on the fundamental news.
In this pair we wanted to see a range on the daily cycle or two waves correction and this pair is currently delivering the second leg of the correction and I still expect the price to play within the range shown in the screenshot and the closer we get to the bottom of it the stronger the pressure would be to the upside later on.
On the H4 chart the price is currently building up the two waves with bullish divergence, once we can hit it then it would be a good time to start looking for reactions and then buys.
Meanwhile on the shorter term, the way it develops we might see the price pushing slightly lower, we can see the clear structure of lower highs, lower lows. So on the short term sell the rallies with bearish evidences would be the plan.
But once the price reaches the critical zone with bullish evidences then it would be the time for us to switch from corrective mode to the buys.
Based on the Crystal Ball statistics we can see that the price is heading towards great zone of days for the buys that’s why I believe the drop down is about to end and during the next days it might provide us buy opportunities.
On the weekly chart the MACD ticks up creating a bullish divergence, we had an inverted hammer candle pattern a week ago and then we had a bullish hammer on this week. The daily verifies the bullish view with two false breakouts and bullish divergence. The price has also broken above the most recent trend line.
Assuming the price is creating the first leg of the correction, we should see the bullish structure coming in play on the H4 chart. The price is currently building up the higher highs, higher lows structure, one more high is required to complete the structure and also to break above the most recent high of the down move. The move should be likely blocked with divergence and after that we should be exposed for corrections and future buy opportunity.
On the weekly chart the price has created a false break, we also have quarter of a round number 0.8250 as a psychological level, bullish divergence, massive engulfing in play after inverted hammer.
On the daily chart we have a beautiful structure of engulfing with two false breakouts, the price has also broken above the most recent trend line.
The H4 chart starts to provide us the convergence idea, we can also see the Bollinger bands beautifully striking to the bullish direction which makes me think that buy retraces with bullish evidences would be the right thing to do here.
On the H1 chart we are facing clear higher highs, higher lows and corrections should provide us buy opportunities.
Based on the Crystal Ball statistics we can see the 2nd of the month blocked for us the move to the downside and changing it to the bullish direction.
We need to pay attention to the level of 61.8 fibo retrace and if the price suddenly goes through that level then it would be a warning sign for us and we may remove this pair from our watch list.
We have a bullish divergence on the weekly chart and on the daily chart we have a false break with bullish divergence and also a band to band movement through the Bollingers.
The H4 chart has completed a movement in a cycle by itself, false break on the bottom, convergence principle in play and the most recent trend line is broken. We are gaining momentum from one Bollinger to the opposite and the area shown in the screenshot becomes the pressure place from where it should lead us for corrections and further continuation to the upside.
The H1 chart is the place where we would want to see the price gaining the bullish structure, we may then look for retraces and buys.
Pay attention to the 61.8 fibo retrace level because if the price moves below this level in one straight move then this buy idea would be invalidated.
Based on the Crystal Ball statistics we can see that the 2nd and 3rd are critical days for the reversal and this is where the price got blocked.
In Natural Gas we were looking for the break of the trend line and we got it, this is a very good bullish sign, bullish divergence is in play of the two waves correction. We have a bullish hidden divergence on the daily timeframe, so its a great sign for continuation.
We might see a new low with divergence, even if that happens, it will not change our bullish view here so pay attention to that.
In Gold we were in a bearish correction until we would complete a daily bullish divergence, this divergence is completed but theoretically for the buys we need the price to break above the trend line shown in the screenshot.
However the higher timeframe still holds a massive extreme divergence and the correction down is yet small, I still think that the price is creating a ranging structure. The synchronization among the timeframes is very tricky and in my POV sell the rallies with bearish evidences would be the plan here. The closer we get to the top we might get some sell opportunities.
Currently the conditions are very tricky with the Gold and if you are dealing with this then deal it with small risk, like an aggressive approach.
On the weekly chart the price is holding a beautiful ranging structure with the bearish divergence yet in play. The daily holds its tops by itself, this makes me think that the structure here should offer sell the rallies opportunities.
On the lower timeframe I would be looking for the correction, get some bearish hidden divergence in play from the massive area shown in the screenshot and then we may look for sell opportunities.
If the price crosses straight above 61.8 fibo retrace level in one leg then it would invalidate this sell idea.
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