Hi Traders! Forex Weekly Forecast Text Format September 13th to September 18th 2020 is here. My team and I always continue to work very hard for you and your success and as we do every week, we have prepared two great gifts for you!
Forex Weekly Forecast Video:
And here is the text format of the Forex Weekly Forecast prepared for you specially by my team:
On the weekly chart, the price has reached a strong resistance zone next to the psychological round number 1.20. Also by duplicating the range of the Bollinger Bands, I believe we are now in a period of a slow down.
This slow down may happen in the form of two waves before further continuation higher.
Or alternatively in the form of a range.
Personally I believe every rally for whatever reason it comes should be considered as an opportunity for the sells. And the way I see this, on the H4 chart if the rallies do take place then I would be looking for bearish evidences expecting a bearish bounce.
On the daily chart, the price reached a key resistance zone around the psychological level 1.35, we also had a massive bearish divergence at the ending part as shown in the screenshot below.
The way it looks right now, the price is building the first wave of correction.
We have two strong supportive areas and if we draw the rising trend line, we could see that the price has broken below the dynamic supportive line, and also the price has reached the 200 moving averages. The zone shown in the screenshot below is a good zone to expect the price to make a retrace.
Also while looking at the Bollinger Bands we could see that we have a straight move from one band to another. Right now we have a Doji candle pattern which is a great sign that shows the ratio of the buyers and sellers is equal.
On the H4 chart, the price starts to form some sort of bullish divergence based on the histogram of the macd indicator. As I mentioned earlier we have some strong supportive zones on the way here. And every drop taking place towards this supportive area should provide some corrections and then likely might provide the next opportunities for a bearish continuation. If my analysis is correct then we should experience pullback and then a bearish continuation.
Note: Keep an eye on fundamental news.
In this pair on the H4 chart, the price has created a beautiful bullish trending pattern which ended with a bearish divergence, right on a resistance zone where the psychological round number 0.70 coincides.
From the very top we have classical false breakouts followed by a beautiful candle switch to bearish direction. And after a significant drop, we can now see the price trying to slow down.
We also have some very powerful supportive zones as shown in the screenshot below. Based on the Bollinger Bands we could see that the price has moved from the top of the upper band through the lower band making it around 50% deviation of the big range.
On the H1 chart, we could see that each wave is getting smaller and smaller. Also, the price is making a good sign for a possible round and bounce. Pay attention to the developing bullish divergence. These are the classical combination of technical tools for a potential reversal.
The way I see this, the area shown in the screenshot below is the one where we may see the price slowing down and making some pullback.
On the daily chart, this pair has a beautiful rally and it had all the possibilities and technical reasons to complete the second wave before the pull to the downside but it never managed to hold it. After holding the bearish hidden divergence shown in the screenshot below with the new high, currently it is making a retrace.
This retrace is in a “V” shaped pattern and goes through all the fibonacci levels (in one straight move) inside the first rally, which makes it a strong bearish momentum.
One of the ways to fit this on the weekly chart is the possibility of three waves up followed by an ABCD correction as shown in the screenshot below before any possible continuation.
So the way I see this, the price might complete the second leg until the bullish divergence would complete on the weekly timeframe (it’s impossible to say when it will happen as it is long term).
The thing that is clear now is after pretty narrow Bollinger bands we got a straight movement and there is a good chance that it is about to continue as we have no signs against on he weekly, daily, and H4 chart.
So in my POV, all these facts make a great sign for retraces (whenever they happen) and should deliver a good opportunity for potential continuation to the downside.
Based on the fibonacci expansion levels we could see that 61.8% is a great first zone to pay attention to. If the price breaks through this level then it might be the beginning of a move down to the 100% fibonacci expansion level shown in the screenshot below.
On the daily chart, the price reached a key resistance zone and it had a hard time breaking through this resistance zone. In addition to this, the dynamic moving averages keep its negative slope, and also we have the psychological round number 45 around the same zone. So all this makes a good possibility for a correction.
Personally I think this correction is temporary and later or sooner the bullish hidden divergence will complete and then we should be exposed to a new rally. Until then my short term view is bearish here.
On the H4 chart, the way the first leg has developed, it looks very bearish.
Currently, it looks like a pullback is happening, we have several strong zones on the way. The closer we get to the resistance zones shown in the screenshot below the better the bearish pressure should be. And I would not be surprised if every rally at the moment gives some new bearish evidences and opportunities to ride that to the downside.
Also, I would not be surprised if this correction happens in the form of consolidation for a while as it is a very common scenario after strong impulsive waves. But this will not change the fact based on the technical view that these short term rallies are nothing more than a noise (of course the market can surprise) and might provide us bearish opportunities.
On the daily chart after the massive rally shown in the screenshot below, the price is now facing a strong bearish divergence based on the MACD indicator.
On the H4 chart, the price has provided two waves to the downside and I do want to see the price breaking below the low (marked in red) shown in the screenshot below and complete the bearish trending pattern with bullish divergence. After that, we may expect pullbacks to happen, and then we may look for possible sells deeper. So if the price manages to break this low then it’s a great sign which shows that the price is likely building up a deeper corrective phase.
On the daily chart, the price which was rallying has created lower lows for the first time and there is a good chance for a deeper correction. But before that, the price has to complete the bearish trending pattern on the H4 chart in order to confirm the bearish pressure.
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Note: Bullish evidences could be in the form of candle stick patterns, false breaks, trend line breakout etc… supporting the bullish view and bearish evidences could be in the form of candle stick patterns, false breaks, trend line breakout etc… supporting the bearish view.
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I wish you a wonderful trading week
Yours for your success,
Certified Financial Technician