Hi Traders! Forex Weekly Forecast Text Format September 27th to October 2nd 2020 is here. My team and I always continue to work very hard for you and your success and as we do every week, we have prepared two great gifts for you!
Forex Weekly Forecast Video:
And here is the text format of the Forex Weekly Forecast prepared for you specially by my team:
In my previous week’s forecast, I mentioned that, in this pair, the price was in a very strong support zone on the weekly chart and we also had a strong bullish divergence on the daily chart. My idea here was to look for the price to break above the H4 range and then we may expect the price to continue higher further. The price moved exactly as per my analysis, the price broke above the H4 range, we then had a pullback and then we had a fantastic rally to the upside as you can see in the screenshot below.
In this pair, my view from the previous week was to expect a correction to the downside. As you can see in the screenshot below, the price action followed my analysis here and made a great move to the downside.
The way I see this pair based on the current scenario it is still under the corrective phase and there are no ending signs at least on the daily chart.
Looking at the H4 chart, assuming the leg shown in the screenshot below as the first one then there is a good chance that the price might be heading towards the 161.8% fibonacci expansion level of this first wave. Currently, there is some slow down around the 100% fibonacci expansion level, we also have some slowing down bullish divergence based on the MACD indicator. So very likely we may expect some pullbacks to happen here and then I expect the price to continue further lower until the daily and H4 chart will be synchronized again (as for now they are not synchronized).
In order to avoid any surprises by the market, we have a developing bearish trend as you can see in the screenshot below and it gains the momentum. As long as the price is below the 61.8% fibonacci retracement zone of this bearish trend pattern I expect the price to move lower further. If the price suddenly breaks and holds above the 61.8% fibonacci retracement zone in one straight leg then its a warning sign for us from the market showing that the bears are not here.
In this pair, my view from the previous week was “On theH4 chart the price is under the bearish pressure due to the bearish divergence and I expected to see another leg to the downside”. The price action followed my analysis here as well and moved lower exactly as I expected it to providing a nice move to the downside.
In this pair after enjoying the move down my view from the previous week was to expect some pullbacks to the upside and then the price to provide some opportunities with evidences for the bearish direction. We got the pullback and now we may potentially look for some bearish evidences, it’s still not in play yet.
But on the short term, we need to pay attention to the strong resistance zone shown in the screenshot below, we also have the dynamic 200 moving averages coinciding on the same level. So the way I see this if the price gets closer to this resistance zone then this is the place where we may expect the market to complete bearish divergence on the MACD and RSI indicators and may provide us some good bearish opportunities for the short term.
In Dow Jones, my view from the previous week was bearish as long as the resistance zone holds. The price moved lower and delivered an excellent move to the downside exactly as I expected it to.
In this pair on the H4 chart while looking at the fibonacci expansion levels of the first wave, we could see that the price still has room higher towards the 161.8% fibonacci expansion level. And I likely assume that the market might try something like what is shown in the screenshot below.
When we look at the little zone of consolidation shown in the screenshot below. we could see that we have a massive breakout and currently the price is retesting it. Also, the price is riding the upper Bollinger Band for more than 20 candles and we have a clear slow down on the histogram of the MACD indicator.
Looking at the H1 chart we could see that we have a massive bearish divergence on the moving averages of the MACD indicator and also on the RSI indicator.
Whereafter if the price reaches the support zone shown in the screenshot below and as long as the price holds above the rising supportive trend line I expect the price to continue higher towards the 161.8% fibonacci expansion level (shown in the screenshot earlier) after pullbacks. So I expect little drops here potentially providing a bullish hidden divergence which might provide us further buy opportunities.
In this pair on the weekly chart, we have a very strong resistance zone and also we have a strong slowdown based on the MACD indicator.
On the daily chart, the price has created a double top, and then currently the price is attempting to break below the most recent low shown in the screenshot below and gain momentum here to the downside. Also, the RSI indicator has puts itself below the broken supportive area.
I do see the price trying to establish some bottom on the next several days and then the price might go ahead and retest the broken supportive area and comple the hidden bearish divergence. We may then expect the price to continue lower further.
So the way I see this pair, it might be in the beginning of something deeper and later or sooner we may see the price reaching the key support area shown in the screenshot below next to the daily dynamic 200 moving averages. So in my POV sell the rallies with bearish evidences is my plan here.
In Gold, I am not going to give my analysis for the very long term. I will give my analysis for the short term. On the weekly chart, after the massive rally we experienced and at the end of this rally with extreme divergence, we are very likely to assume that the price is heading into some corrective phase (it’s too early to judge now if this is for a long run or a short run).
In my POV one thing that is clear right now is that the pressure is yet bearish and it makes sense as the price is in a corrective phase. So the way I see Gold, there is still short term room for the price to go to the downside in this corrective phase.
Currently, there are no reversal signs so I would use the pullbacks as an opportunity to go and try to ride the sells until the price is blocked by a bullish divergence (of course ideally not on one timeframe, the slow down should be on H4, D1, and W1).
In Dax on the daily chart, we have a triple cycle to the upside with two false breakouts on the very top with a massive bearish divergence. The triangle in the RSI indicator shown in the screenshot below was broken and also we currently have a slowing down little range.
This or the other way around I personally think that the daily chart has not finished the drop. So if my analysis is correct, the price has created two legs down on the H4 chart as shown in the screenshot below and after pullbacks, we should see another leg to the downside.
The second leg can be broken into pretty clear three waves as shown in the screenshot below currently it has been blocked with bullish divergence. So pullbacks are welcome to happen now after that I expect the price to continue lower further.
The invalidation for this bearish view is if the price moves higher, breaks, and holds above the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level in one straight leg then it’s a strong warning for us from the market indicating that the bears are not here.
So I do want to see the rally here and mainly I want to see bearish evidences at the end of the rally and the price to return to the bearish momentum. I would be paying attention to the two key resistance zones shown in the screenshot below.
I have more instruments in my list which I will cover this week in the Live Market Analysis in Traders Academy Club.
This is how the report looks like. A table with the hottest market opportunities, screenshot behind every pair and time frame (anything that is in blue inside the table is clickable and leads to a screenshot) + a summary in text format, kind of highlights. And of course Live Market Analysis every single day. If you want to enjoy similar trading ideas as they come live (we run our Live Market Analysis on daily basis, where we analyze the market choosing the synchronized opportunities as we see them) I invite you to join our Traders Academy Club
Note: Bullish evidences could be in the form of candlestick patterns, false breaks, trend line breakout etc… supporting the bullish view and bearish evidences could be in the form of candlestick patterns, false breaks, trend line breakout etc… supporting the bearish view.
Once again I invite you to join me in my Live Market Analysis, on daily basis, and improve your trading with us.
Also, you can get one of my strategies free of charge. You will find all the details here
I wish you a wonderful trading week
Yours for your success,
Certified Financial Technician