Forex Weekly Forecast & Trade Strategy – June 23-27, 2025 – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, GOLD (XAUUSD)

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🔹 EURUSD: Nearing a Critical Turning Point

Last week, we discussed the developing bearish divergence on EURUSD. While the pair hasn’t reversed yet, we’re approaching a significant turning point. The pair might attempt one final spike upward before the expected reversal begins.

 

 

Key levels and structure:

• The Bollinger Band duplication zone aligns with a supply area and a broken support now acting as resistance.
• This creates a confluence zone for a likely peak formation.

 

 

Despite fundamental activity (Fed, BOE, BOJ rate decisions, and the SNB rate cut to 0), price action on EURUSD remained largely flat. The technical setups remain valid:

Two Bearish Scenarios:

1. Final Push and Reversal: Price may create a false breakout above resistance, followed by a reversal.

 

 

1. ABCD Correction: Price may complete an ABCD corrective structure and break down without new highs.

 

 

Ideal plan:

• Watch for a final breakout attempt
• Look for divergence confirmation
• Entry after a clear reversal, targeting 1.14 and potentially 1.13 or lower

 

 

Market Snapshot:

• Monthly: Strongly bullish
• Weekly: +0.8%
• 24H: Slowing

Momentum is still bullish, but fading. The coming week could be decisive.

🔹 GBPUSD: Prepping for Correction Before Final Rally

GBPUSD mirrors EURUSD behavior. We saw:

• Bearish divergence on MACD
• Price still maintaining a bullish longer-term structure

We’re now likely to enter a corrective phase:

• This could take form as an ABCD or ranging pattern
• After the correction, the bullish trend is likely to resume

 

 

Long-term projection:

• Price to eventually cross 1.37 and potentially retest 1.39–1.41 zone

 

 

Short-term plan:

• Wait for correction to complete
• Watch for bullish reversal signals (divergence, breakouts, higher lows)

 

 

Market Snapshot:

• Monthly & Weekly: Neutral/Flat
• 24H: Slightly negative

The market is indecisive, which supports the case for a corrective setup before a bullish continuation.

🔹 USDJPY: Watch the Supply Zone for Sell Opportunities

USDJPY continues to follow our expected scenario:

• Price is moving into a strong supply zone where previous selling pressure began
• A short-term bounce down is possible

 

 

In the long term, there is a chance that the price is heading here either for the range of the daily chart and then break to the downside.

 

 

Alternative Scenario:

The price might complete the two waves with bearish divergence and then we may look for much bigger sells.

 

 

Key structure:

• Watching the potential daily range formation
• Bearish divergence may soon complete
• KTLI volume profile shows a key trading level, aligning with the expected reversal from the marked zones

 

 

 

Plan:

• Look for bearish divergence + fake highs + trendline break
• Sell the rallies if price confirms rejection from the supply area

 

 

Market Snapshot:

• Monthly: Bullish (+1%)
• Weekly: Slightly bullish (<1%)
• 24H: Weakening

With bullish momentum slowing, a reversal may be near. Focus remains on sell setups as rallies mature.

🔹 GOLD (XAUUSD): Overbought and Vulnerable

Gold remains in a highly overbought condition, as we’ve been tracking for weeks:

• Trading above the upper Bollinger Band
• Retesting broken resistance turned support
• Geopolitical tensions (Middle East) contributing to bullish sentiment

But remember: the higher it goes without correction, the sharper the reversal tends to be.

 

 

 

Technical view:

• Daily chart shows completed ABCD move, followed by consolidation
• Two possible paths:

  Break the low → opens door for deeper correction to rising trend line

  Fake high + bearish divergence → triggers next sell wave

 

 

Until key support breaks, gold may still attempt one more spike.

Plan:

• Watch for bearish divergence + reversal signs
• If key support breaks, sell the rallies becomes the dominant strategy.

 

 

🔧 Pro Trading Tip

Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club