A LOOK INSIDE PRESIDENT-ELECT DONALD TRUMP’S FIRST PRESS CONFERENCE AND HOW TO TRADE IT

The Trump Fireworks are about to officially kick off on Wednesday, January 11 at 11am EST or 4pm GMT as Trump will hold his first press conference since July.  After some prepared comments reporters will be given the opportunity to ask Trump questions which will likely revolve around his prospective policies, Russian’s influence on the election results, building the wall, race relations, cabinet picks, and very likely his Twitter account.

Today kicked off the first of many confirmation hearings on Trump’s selected cabinet picks which will last for the next few days.  The makeup of Trump’s cabinet has been largely criticized because most of them come from a business background rather than government or political.  In a New York Times article they suggested that Human Services Secretary pick Tom Price will be met with some harsh criticism from the democrats because he opposes the Affordable Care Act.  Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson will likely also have a rough ride because of reports that when he was CEO of Exxon Mobil the company engaged in deals with countries that were sanctioned by the US.  Given that there are many ex Goldman Sachs employees as picks for Trump’s cabinet there could be plenty of interesting rhetoric coming through the news wires

There are a couple things we as Forex traders will need to watch out for during the press conference:

1. Listen up for any clues on proposed fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending, trade deals between countries, and any commentary regarding Wall Street.
2. Listen for any plans Trump may have to shake-up the Federal Reserve board of governors. This is especially important because there are currently 2 vacancies on the board.  Trump has been a vocal critic of the Fed and Janet Yellen saying that Yellen was keeping rates low for political reasons that will cause problems when the Fed does push rates higher.

Unfortunately for us as Forex traders the questions will not be pre-screened so we will not have any idea what those questions might be until they get asked and Trump has to answer.

For me I will have my ear to the Squawk and eyes to the news feed waiting for anything that will give me some insights about how to position myself.

Any overly bullish comments geared towards Wall Street or of major fiscal stimulus into the business sector will likely send the American indices such as the S&P 500 soaring to the moon.  If I hear anything about a shake-up at the Fed, especially talk of forcing them to hike interest rates faster than we currently expect (2-3 hikes in 2017) will likely send the dollar higher.  If Trump causes uncertainty by making ridiculous comments or anything that the market might find scary will likely cause safe haven flow into the Yen and trading opportunities to buy the Yen.

I will personally be watching the S&P 500, US Dollar, and the Yen during the event searching for good trading opportunities.

Unfortunately it’s hard to prepare for this event given we have no idea what will come out of it so keep your risks manageable and trade smart.  Happy trading and I hope you bag a few pips!

 

Author: Brandon Turner

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