NZDCAD Short Term Forecast Update And Follow Up

Hi Traders! NZDCAD short term forecast follow up and update is here. On May 6th I shared this “NZDCAD Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!

My Idea:

On the H4 chart the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. Currently it looks like a correction is happening and until the strong resistance zone (marked in blue) shown in the image below holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.

NZDCAD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario

On the H4 chart my view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the strong resistance zone holds. After the bearish trend pattern, we had a pullback, and the price which was moving higher reached the strong resistance zone, respected it and bounced lower from this zone. The price then moved lower further as I expected it to and delivered around 200 pips move so far.

The market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view on the M15 chart. The price which was moving higher created multiple false breaks with a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed at 0.88442 and the second high that has formed at 0.88630 based on the macd indicator. Then the price moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line. We may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower and provided a fantastic move to the downside.

(Note: You can learn about a Killer Forex Strategy “Double Trend Line Principle” here)

Currently, on the H4 chart, we have a potential bullish divergence that is forming at the moment, this is something that we need to pay attention to. So if you are still involved in the sells then this is a good place to consider managing your trade and secure your profits (cash out or partial cash out or trailing protections or partial hedge, etc.. depending on the strategy that you work with).

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As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted us and took the right action according to that.

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If you have any further questions, don’t hesitate to drop a comment below!

To your success,

Vladimir Ribakov
Certified Financial Technician

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Vladimir Ribakov

Following 11+ years of trading experience, trading my own accounts as well as for hedge funds and brokerages, I have decided to fulfill my destiny and to personally mentor Forex and Commodities traders. When I released the “Broker Nightmare” (software that hides trades from brokers) 8 years ago, I found an overwhelming number of frustrated people who genuinely wanted to learn how to trade the Forex market, but instead found themselves scammed and misled. Over the years I have also release other trading systems based on my trading strategies, and met a lot of people on my worldwide Forex seminars. We’ve formed a close Forex community and we meet once or twice a year in various locations in Europe.