Rate Cut Hopes Prop Up Futures As More Data Awaited

U.S. stock index futures were marginally higher on Thursday ahead of another batch of economic data, after benign consumer inflation figures reinforced hopes for a September start to the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle.

Most megacap and growth stocks edged up in premarket trading. Nvidia (NVDA.O), was an outlier with a 0.7% decline.

Retail bellwether Walmart (WMT.N), added 6.3% after raising its annual profit forecast for the second time this year.

On the data front, the Commerce Department’s retail sales data, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show a 0.3% growth in retail sales in July on a monthly basis.

“The bounce back in auto sales is expected to support the headline number, but the market will focus on the retail sales control group,” said an ING note.

“The consensus is 0.1% MoM and any MoM decline here (-0.1%, -0.2% are possible) could weigh on the short end of the US rates curve and the dollar.”

Initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 10 are forecast to increase marginally to 235,000 from 233,000 a week earlier.

The S&P 500 (.SPX), on Wednesday extended its winning streak to five sessions, boosted by softer inflation data, but the Nasdaq (.IXIC), barely scraped into positive territory as Alphabet (GOOGL.O), and some megacap stocks weighed.

Investors have kept a cautious eye on this week’s data releases – the last set of economic indicators before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole next week.

Traders currently see a 64.5% chance of Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in September from being evenly split between a 25- and a 50-basis-point cut before the inflation data, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Comments from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, due at 1:10 p.m. ET, will be closely eyed for any clues on the Fed’s interest-rate path.

Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told the Financial Times that he is open to an interest rate cut in September, adding that the U.S. central bank can’t “afford to be late” to ease monetary policy.

At 07:10 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 85 points, or 0.21%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 4.25 points, or 0.08% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 21.75 points, or 0.11%.

Among other movers, Cisco Systems (CSCO.O), rose 5.8% after it forecast better-than-expected first-quarter revenue on Wednesday and said it was cutting 7% of its global workforce.

Nike (NKE.N), climbed 3.9% as billionaire investor William Ackman built new stakes in sportswear company and investment management company Brookfield (BN.TO), during the second quarter.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA.O), jumped 13.6% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N), acquired a stake in the cosmetics store chain.

Deere & Co (DE.N), gained 1.4% after the farm, construction and forestry equipment maker beat analysts’ expectations for third-quarter profit.

U.S.-listed shares of Alibaba Group Holding (9988.HK), slipped 4.5% after the e-commerce giant missed market expectations for first-quarter revenue.

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