Categories: Technical Analysis

Selling NZDUSD into gains with a rejection of trend line

Today, we have an interesting opportunity for NZDUSD. The pair is trading lower Intraday, and also broke an important bullish trend line, as can be seen in the 4 hour chart shown below. This is a critical break, as this trend was connecting all previous major lows in the medium term. So, I think selling rallies is a good option in the near term.

The broken trend line can be seen clearly in the hourly chart below. If the pair retraces some of the recent losses, trades closer to the broken trend line and resistance zone at around 0.8610/30 levels and makes a stop, then we can enter into a sell trade. Remember, we need to wait for a pullback before jumping into a trade.

Initial target should be around 0.8510 level, and final target could be around 0.8470 level. Stop should be placed above the 0.8680 level.

Reviewing yesterday’s events and trades
Yesterday in the European session, German and the Euro zone unemployment data was published. The outcome was surprising, as both exceeded the expectations. As a result, the EURUSD pair traded higher above the 1.3800 level. Later in the NY session, the US ISM manufacturing index was released, which missed the expectations of a rise to 54.0, and registered a reading of 53.7. The US dollar was seen trading a touch lower after the release, except for the fact that USDJPY pair spiked higher above the 103.40 level.

Fundamental Outlook for the day
Today in the NY session, US ADP Nonfarm employment change and factory orders data will be published with market expecting improvement over last outcome. So, if the result does not disappoint, then the US dollar could recover some of the lost ground. One of the FOMC members, Bullard will also be speaking during the NY session, which can create some volatility. We need to be careful trading in the coming sessions, as the market readies itself for the most important event of the week – NFP report.

This analysis is taken from today’s Daily Market Forecast, which also includes trade opportunities on: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDNZD, EURCAD and AUDUSD.
Get it HERE: Vladimir’s Markets Forecast

Trade carefully friends. Happy trading

Vladimir Ribakov

Following 11+ years of trading experience, trading my own accounts as well as for hedge funds and brokerages, I have decided to fulfill my destiny and to personally mentor Forex and Commodities traders. When I released the “Broker Nightmare” (software that hides trades from brokers) 8 years ago, I found an overwhelming number of frustrated people who genuinely wanted to learn how to trade the Forex market, but instead found themselves scammed and misled. Over the years I have also release other trading systems based on my trading strategies, and met a lot of people on my worldwide Forex seminars. We’ve formed a close Forex community and we meet once or twice a year in various locations in Europe.