Categories: Fundamental Analysis

US Dollar Nosedives Post A Flurry Of Releases

The US dollar traded mixed yesterday after a couple of important economic releases which were lined up during the NY session. The most important one was the US GDP release, which mostly exceeded the expectation. Moreover, there were a few other releases as well, which were mostly better than expected. However, the US dollar was seen trading lower later during the NY session.

The price action as mostly mixed, and we can say that the market was caught with the risk-on theme. Most risk correlated pairs like EURUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD were seen trading higher. The downside in the US dollar was extended once the CB consumer confidence was released, which missed the mark and ignited more downside in the US dollar.

US GDP
The first important release in the NY session was the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized which was released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The forecast was slated for a decline from 3.5% to 3.3% in the third quarter of 2014. However, the outcome was better than expected as the US GDP increased by 3.9%. The outcome was definitely better and should have helped the US dollar. We should not forget that the in the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.5%.

The EURUSD pair spiked lower after the release, but later the US dollar sellers came into action and pushed the pair higher. It managed to break the intraday highs and challenged the 1.2460 level.

Canadian Retail Sales
There was one more critical release during the London session in Canada. The Canadian Retail Sales report released by the Statistics Canada. The market was expecting it to increase by 0.5% in September 2014, compared with the preceding month. However, the outcome was better than expected and registered an increase of 0.8%. This also caused a downside in the US dollar as currencies such as the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar were seen trading higher after the release.

The USDCAD pair was seen trading lower immediately after the release. However, the pair found support around the 1.1230 level. The US dollar buyers somehow managed to protect the downside in the pair.

CB Consumer Confidence
One more release which caught the attention of the US dollar traders was the Consumer Confidence which was released by the Conference Board. The outcome was not in line with the expectation, as the CB consumer confidence declined in November to 88.7 whereas the market was expecting it to register a rise to 96.0. Moreover, the previous reading was also revised down to 94.1. This was on the negative side and ignited a down-move in the US dollar.

Technically, the EURUSD pair climbed towards the 1.2480 level. The mentioned level holds a lot of importance in the near term. If the pair has to continue trading higher, then it has to break and settle above the same. On the downside, the most critical support is around the 1.2400 level.

So, keep an eye on all the important levels friends and trade accordingly.

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Vladimir Ribakov

Following 11+ years of trading experience, trading my own accounts as well as for hedge funds and brokerages, I have decided to fulfill my destiny and to personally mentor Forex and Commodities traders. When I released the “Broker Nightmare” (software that hides trades from brokers) 8 years ago, I found an overwhelming number of frustrated people who genuinely wanted to learn how to trade the Forex market, but instead found themselves scammed and misled. Over the years I have also release other trading systems based on my trading strategies, and met a lot of people on my worldwide Forex seminars. We’ve formed a close Forex community and we meet once or twice a year in various locations in Europe.

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