USDJPY set to regain negative bias above 102.10 (extract from Weekly Market Forecast 11th of May 2014)

The US dollar was seen trading higher against the Euro and pound, but was unable to gain ground against the Japanese yen. The pair is under bearish pressure for the last couple of weeks now. I think selling rallies remain a good option in the short term, as long as the bearish tone does not change for the pair. The pair might duplicate the last wave down, as highlighted in the daily chart below.

There is a resistance around the 102.20/40 levels. If the pair manages to retrace higher from the current levels, makes a stop and forms a bearish divergence on the lower timeframe, then we can jump into a sell trade around the mentioned levels.

Initial target should be around the 101.30 level, and final target could be around the 100.40 level. Stop should be placed above the 103.00 level.

Major events scheduled in the upcoming week
The US dollar traded higher this past week, as the Euro was slammed by the ECB during the press conference. The decline in the Euro helped the US dollar to gain bids against few other major currencies as well, including the British pound, New Zealand dollar and Swiss franc. There was hardly any major economic release in the US this past week, so mostly the risk events from other countries drove the market. The Canadian employment numbers were released on the last Friday, which came as a disappointment, and ignited down-move in the Canadian dollar.

Let us look at all major events lined up in the upcoming week.
Sunday – Japanese current account data.

Monday – Swiss retail sales data and US federal budget balance.

Tuesday – Chinese industrial production, Italian CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, US retail sales data and New Zealand retail sales data.

Wednesday – German CPI, French CPI, Spanish CPI, UK employment data, Euro zone industrial production data, US PPI and Japan’s GDP figures.

Thursday – German GDP, French GDP, Italian GDP, Euro zone inflation data, US inflation data and Philadelphia fed manufacturing index.

Friday –US building permits, housing starts and Michigan consumer sentiment.

This analysis is taken from Weekly Market Forecast, which also includes trade opportunities on: EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, EURCAD, GOLD, OIL and INDICES.
Get it HERE: Vladimir’s Markets Forecast

Happy trading friends!

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