Categories: Fundamental Analysis

Disappointing Employment Cost Index Could Hurt Dollar

  • US recently saw a major release as the Employment Cost Index (ECI) was released by US Bureau of Labour Statistics.
  • The forecast was positioned for an increase of 0.6% in the U.S. Worker Pay, but the outcome was very disappointing, as the ECI rose 0.2% in the second quarter of 2015.
  • According to reports, it was the slowest increase on record.
  • Employment Cost Index (ECI)

    This past week, there was a major economic release lined up in the US. The US Employment Cost Index (ECI), which is a quarterly measure of the change in the price of labor was released by US Bureau of Labour Statistics. The expectation was high, as the market was positioned for an increase of 0.6% in the second quarter of 2015, which was already on the lower side when compared with the last gain of 0.7%.

    The outcome missed the mark, as the US Employment Cost Index rose by only 0.2% in the second quarter of 2015 on the seasonally adjusted basis. The report stated that “Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) was also little changed at 0.2 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent of compensation) was little changed at 0.1 percent”.

    Compensation costs for civilian workers

    According to the report, the compensation costs for civilian workers increased by 0.2% in June 2015, compared with the same month of the preceding year. Similarly, wages and salaries rose 2.1%.

    Compensation costs for private workers

    The compensation costs for the private industry workers increased by 1.9% in June 2015, compared with the same month of the preceding year. Similarly, wages and salaries rose 2.2%.

    Overall, the outcome was on the lower side, as the Fed members are relying heavily on rising wages to boost the economy. So, moving ahead it would be interesting to see how the US Dollar trades and whether sellers see this as an opportunity to take the greenback lower.

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    Vladimir Ribakov

    Following 11+ years of trading experience, trading my own accounts as well as for hedge funds and brokerages, I have decided to fulfill my destiny and to personally mentor Forex and Commodities traders. When I released the “Broker Nightmare” (software that hides trades from brokers) 8 years ago, I found an overwhelming number of frustrated people who genuinely wanted to learn how to trade the Forex market, but instead found themselves scammed and misled. Over the years I have also release other trading systems based on my trading strategies, and met a lot of people on my worldwide Forex seminars. We’ve formed a close Forex community and we meet once or twice a year in various locations in Europe.

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