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This week’s outlook continues to highlight a common theme across the major markets we track:
👉 The higher-timeframe cycles are not complete yet, and short-term strength still appears corrective.
👉 Sell-the-rallies remains the primary plan in most pairs.
Let’s break down each market with a clear, actionable technical outlook.
The weekly chart continues to support the larger bullish cycle in the long run.
However, on the daily chart the recent three-wave rally has produced a bearish divergence, suggesting that the corrective structure isn’t complete.
Two corrective paths remain likely:
ABCD correction before the next bullish continuation, or
Prolonged consolidation before a final drop and then the next leg higher.
In both cases, short-term rallies are expected to face selling pressure.
The structure is very clear:
✔️ Lower highs, lower lows — bearish sequence
✔️ Broken support → new resistance
✔️ Supply zones above acting as strong selling areas
Levels to watch for bearish setups:
1st supply zone: Previous highs & broken structure
2nd supply zone: Higher supply block with repeated seller activity
Wait for the rally into these zones and look for:
✔️ Bearish divergence on lower timeframes
✔️ Price rejection (lower highs, lower lows restarting)
As long as those conditions align, selling the rallies remains the plan.
Similar to EUR/USD, the Pound’s long-term bullish cycle is still incomplete. However, current momentum continues to point lower in the short term. So basically I am expecting short term bearish moves now before further continuation higher.
Unlike the EUR/USD, GBP/USD already developed two waves down, yet:
No bullish divergence
Indicators are still making lower lows
Price action remains decisively bearish
The daily chart reveals a massive balance zone created by volume distribution — important for locating future turning points. For now, price is still trading below this zone, confirming short-term bearish bias.
Broken support levels are now acting as resistance. Three main zones remain relevant:
1️⃣ 1.3250 area – first broken support
2️⃣ 1.3320–1.3360 zone – cluster of former lows
3️⃣ 1.3470–1.3520 supply zone – previous swing highs and volume block
A developing bearish divergence may form soon, indicating a consolidation range before another breakdown.
As long as trend structure stays bearish, sell any short-term rally into the resistance zones.
Plan remains unchanged: Sell the rallies.
EUR/JPY continues to show classic signs of a maturing bullish cycle:
✔️ Bearish divergence on MACD developing
✔️ Price printing higher highs, while MACD prepares lower highs
✔️ Weekly candles riding the upper Bollinger Band for 20+ bars — historically followed by meaningful corrections
This is not yet a sell, but it is the early phase of a high-probability long-term reversal setup.
Clear bearish divergence building
Price testing a dynamic resistance line
Sellers are likely to appear around the psychological 180.00 zone
The conditions to watch for:
Completion of the three-wave structure
Higher highs on price, but lower highs on MACD
RSI likely to confirm
Another Bollinger Band override, similar to previous turning points
Expect the correction toward:
178.00
177.00
Possibly 176.00–175.00 in deeper legs
This pair may deliver one of the best setups in the coming weeks — patience is key.
Bitcoin’s recent drop should not surprise regular viewers — we highlighted the bearish divergence weeks ago. The long-term bullish cycle is not finished, but the current environment is dominated by downside corrective pressure.
Sequence of lower highs & lower lows
MACD and RSI continuing downward
No reversal structure yet
Pullbacks are welcome, but they are still expected to attract sellers.
1️⃣ $98,000–$99,000 – broken support
2️⃣ $105,000–$107,000 – multi-touch supply zone
3️⃣ $111,000–$116,000 – final resistance cluster from previous highs
We’re starting to see a slowdown, but without confirmation on higher timeframes, it should be treated only as a pullback.
Plan:
Wait for rallies into the resistance zones, look for price rejection, and join the ongoing bearish momentum.
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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!
Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club
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