Hello traders, Welcome to this week’s Forex Weekly Forecast, where we analyze the key technical and macro drivers shaping EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, and Crude Oil.
As always, this analysis is based on price action, market structure, volume profile behavior, divergences, and multi-timeframe confluence, not predictions. The goal is to identify high-probability scenarios and understand what would invalidate them.
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Last week, EUR/USD reached the 1.20 area, exactly as anticipated, before reacting lower following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates. This reaction was amplified by broader political and geopolitical uncertainty, including the nomination of Kevin Walsh as a potential future Fed chair and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
From a weekly perspective, EUR/USD has already cleared a major supply zone, which suggests the previous bullish cycle may be approaching maturity. However, price action does not yet confirm a full trend reversal.
Key observations:
Monthly and 7-day performance remain strongly positive
The latest pullback lacks impulsive bearish follow-through
Volume profile shows a balanced zone supporting price
Price is currently interacting with:
A broken resistance now acting as support
A major demand zone
A high-volume balance area (KTLI indicator)
Additionally, EUR/USD is forming a potential bullish hidden divergence:
Higher lows on price
Lower lows on momentum indicators
As long as recent daily lows hold, this move appears to be a corrective pullback, not a reversal.
Bullish continuation targets remain:
1.22
1.24
Potential extension above if momentum accelerates
A clear break below the recent daily low
A completed multi-wave bearish structure (lower highs and lower lows)
Until then, EUR/USD remains structurally bullish.
Last week’s plan was to buy retracements, and the market delivered even stronger behavior than expected. Instead of deep pullbacks, GBP/USD consolidated briefly before buyers resumed control.
We need to pay attention to the potential bearish divergence which is forming
Despite late-week USD strength, the pound remains technically strong:
Monthly, weekly, and 7-day performance are ultra-bullish
Pullbacks remain shallow
Structure continues to print higher highs and higher lows
GBP/USD is currently supported by:
A price gap from last week
Broken resistance acting as support
A rising trend line
A volume profile balance area (KTLI indicator)
The market is also working toward completing a bullish hidden divergence on the daily chart, aligning with a previously identified weekly divergence.
As long as price holds above support, the bias remains bullish, with upside potential toward:
1.40
1.42
1.44 and potentially higher
A trend reversal would require:
A clear break of the recent daily low
A multi-wave bearish sequence
Only then would a “sell the rallies” approach become valid. For now, bullish setups remain favored.
Gold has experienced an extraordinary and historically abnormal move, with daily volatility reaching levels rarely seen even during crisis periods.
While the long-term bullish outlook remains intact, short-term conditions are stretched.
Gold is currently:
Overbought on monthly, weekly, and daily charts
Printing two strong daily reversal candle patterns
Developing a clear wave sequence to the downside
These signals strongly suggest that a corrective phase is unfolding.
5000 – 5100
Psychological resistance
Heavy transaction volume
5200 – 5300
Prior consolidation range
Now acting as potential supply
Within these zones, watch for:
Bearish hidden divergence
Lower highs on price
Momentum exhaustion
As long as these supply levels hold, Gold remains a “sell the rallies” market in the short term.
This is a correction within a broader bullish structure—not the end of the long-term trend.
Oil is back on the radar following the completion of a bullish divergence on the weekly chart, supported by geopolitical tensions and improving technical structure.
Key developments:
Weekly bullish divergence completed
Daily chart confirms higher highs and higher lows
Momentum aligned with price (MACD confirmation)
Oil recently broke a key high, signaling strength, but short-term retracements are likely before continuation.
66 – 67 (primary demand zone)
Secondary zone: 68 – 71
On lower timeframes (4H):
Watch for corrective wave completion
Look for bullish divergence near demand
Monitor rising trend support
Short-term: Expect retracements
Medium-term: Bullish continuation favored
Broken resistance is now acting as support, and structure supports further upside once pullbacks complete.
Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.
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Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club
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