Looking Forward to sell EURUSD for the re-test of lows again (extract from Weekly Market Forecast 17th of November 2013)

EURUSD traded higher this past week. The pair has formed a bullish candle pattern as shown in the weekly chart below. However, the MACD is still going down, and the stochastic is also going down. I am still bearish on the pair, and I think we should look forward for sell opportunities in the upcoming week.

The pair is on the verge of testing the broken up-move trend line as shown in the daily chart below, which might act as a resistance for the pair in the short to medium term.

Looking at the 4 hour chart, the EURUSD is forming an up-move channel as shown below. In order to enter a sell trade, we want the pair to move lower, and break this channel and the support level. If the pair manages an hourly close below the channel and immediate support, then we will jump into a sell trade. Alternatively, if the pair does not move down, then we will wait for some time and re-analyze the situation later in the week.

Initial target should be the previous low at around the 1.3300 level, and final target could be around 1.3250/40. Stop should be triggered on an hourly close back above the broken channel support and trend line.

Major events scheduled in the upcoming week
This past week was a less eventful week. The only thing which caused some moves in the market was the Fed’s Yellen introductory speech. She stated that there are still some concerns in the labor market, and supported the ongoing QE program. This caused the US dollar to lose some ground against most of the major currencies. EURUSD traded as high as 1.3504 and GBPUSD traded above the 1.6100 figure again. Some data from the UK, including retail sales data came as a disappointment, and pushed the GBPUSD a touch lower. Euro zone inflation was confirmed at 0.7% in October, as expected. EURUSD remained in 80-100 pips range throughout the week.

Let us look at all major events lined up in the upcoming week.
Sunday – China House Prices data.

Monday – US Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions.

Tuesday – German ZEW economic sentiment and US Employment cost index data.

Wednesday – German PPI data, US inflation data, US retail sales data and US existing home sales data.

Thursday – Chinese HSBC manufacturing index, French Manufacturing PMI, German Manufacturing PMI, Euro zone composite Manufacturing PMI, French Services PMI, German Services PMI, Euro zone composite Services PMI, US PPI data, US initial jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index .

Friday – German GDP, German Business expectations data, German IFO business climate index, Canadian inflation and Canadian retail sales data.

This analysis is taken from Weekly Market Forecast, which also includes trade opportunities on: EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, USDJPY, EURGPY, GBPJPY, AUDNZD, USDZAR, USDTRY and EURTRY.
Get it HERE: Vladimir’s Markets Forecast

Enjoy weekend friends!

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