Welcome to this week’s Forex Weekly Forecast, where we break down the key market opportunities and setups across the major assets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, SP500, and Bitcoin. This week brings a mix of technical signals and fundamental risks—most notably the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and uncertainty around the nonfarm payrolls data, which could add volatility to the markets. Let’s dive into the charts and trading scenarios for the week ahead.
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Now let’s dive into this week’s outlook on EURUSD, GBPUSD, SP500, and Bitcoin.
Last week, EUR/USD completed a trendline breakout followed by a zigzag move lower, which aligned with our bearish expectation. On the weekly chart, the pair is overriding the Bollinger Band, but the cycle remains incomplete. This suggests that another bearish leg is possible before any sustainable bullish reversal.
Primary Scenario (60–70% probability):
EUR/USD is likely to drop further, potentially testing 1.14 and even 1.12, as the corrective structure has not yet fully developed. The recent lower highs confirm that key supply zones are holding.
I believe, the Euro, if it completes ABCD correction or a range, and break it down, should open the doors for next wave to the downside.
Alternative Scenario:
If EUR/USD holds its current support and builds a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, placing itself above the volume profile balance zone, then a bullish recovery towards 1.20 could unfold.
👉 Trading Plan: Bias remains bearish, but traders should monitor for a potential bullish rebuild if support holds.
GBP/USD presents a balanced scenario, with both bullish and bearish outcomes in play. On the weekly chart, the cycle is not yet completed, meaning longer-term bullish pressure is still possible. Both the scenarios shown below are possible here.
Alternate Scenario
Bearish Setup (preferred, ~60% probability):
A broken trendline, retest, and two waves down suggest another bearish move is possible. A confirmed ABCD correction with bearish divergence on MACD, followed by a break below the rising trendline, would strengthen this view.
Bullish Alternative:
If GBP/USD regains momentum and clears the supply zones and the broken daily range, then we could see a rally towards 1.40 and beyond.
👉 Trading Plan: GBP/USD is currently a range market. Watch for breakout confirmation before committing to either direction.
S&P500 continues its climb alongside major indices, but the rounding conditions suggest that a correction may be near.
A long bearish divergence is forming on the MACD, and with the U.S. shutdown adding uncertainty, pressure on risk assets is mounting.
Bearish Trigger:
A false breakout followed by a daily and 4H divergence, with a break below the rising trendline, could open the path lower. Key levels to watch are 6,350 → 6,200 → 6,100 (index equivalents for correlation).
Risk Reminder:
Don’t try to guess the top—wait for confirmation signals. When indicators and price align, that’s the trader’s moment to act.
👉 Trading Plan: Look for bearish reversal signs before shorting. Until then, momentum remains in play.
Last week, Bitcoin failed to complete its expected ABCD correction, instead consolidating into a range.
Despite short-term divergences, the weekly chart trend remains bullish, with no clear sequence of lower highs or lows.
Bullish Scenario (preferred):
As long as recent lows hold, Bitcoin is likely to continue rallying. Look for retraces back to broken resistance levels turned support—the “money zones”—before the next wave higher.
Technical Confirmation:
Watch for hidden bullish divergence (higher lows on price, lower lows on MACD). If confirmed, this strengthens the bullish continuation case.
👉 Trading Plan: Maintain a buy-the-dips strategy as long as recent lows remain intact.
EUR/USD – Bearish bias (targets: 1.14 → 1.12), unless bullish structure rebuilds.
GBP/USD – 50/50 setup; bearish favored unless buyers reclaim control.
SP500 – Rounding top suggests possible correction; wait for confirmed reversal signals.
Bitcoin – Bulls remain in charge; buy dips near key support zones.
Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.
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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!
Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club
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