Hi Traders! AUDNZD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On April 13th 2023 I shared this “AUDNZD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H4 chart, the price which was moving lower reached a key support zone formed by the 100% (1.05583) Fibonacci expansion level of the big wave and the 100%(1.05779) Fibonacci expansion level of the small wave. The price respected this zone and then it moved higher and has broken above the most recent downtrend line, which we may consider as evidence of bullish pressure. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bullish signal here at the cross of +DI (green line) versus -DI (red line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bullish pressure. So based on all this, until the key support zone (marked in blue) shown in the image below holds my short-term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further after pullbacks.
On the H4 chart, based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bullish here and I was expecting the price to move higher further after pullbacks until the key support zone holds. After the breakout of the downtrend line, the pullback that I was looking for happened and most importantly the price was holding above the key support zone. The price then moved higher further as I expected it to and delivered around 200 pips move to the upside!
On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bullish view. The price which was moving lower created a bullish divergence between the first low that has formed at 1.07450 and the second low that has formed at 1.07348 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved higher and broke above the most recent downtrend line, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved higher after that and provided a nice move to the upside.
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
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