EURUSD Short Term Forecast Follow Up And Update

Hi Traders! EURUSD short term forecast follow up and update is here. On April 22nd 2025 I shared this “EURUSD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!

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My Idea

On the H4 chart, the price which is moving higher has created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed at 1.14727 and the second high that has formed at 1.15727 based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Also while measuring this strong bullish move we have two key support zones that has formed. The first key support zone is formed based on the 23.6% – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels of the strong bullish move. The second key support zone is formed based on the 50% – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the strong bullish move. So based on all this I expect short term bearish moves to happen now towards the key support zones shown in the image below(marked in green).

EURUSD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario

On the H1 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view. The price which was moving higher created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed at 1.14727 and the second high that has formed at 1.15725 based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. The price then moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line. We may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there were no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower further and provided a nice move to the downside.

As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.

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Happy Trading!

Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.