The past week delivered a major geopolitical and macroeconomic shock to the markets. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s tariff measures, declaring them unconstitutional due to lack of Congressional approval. In response, new global 10% tariffs were announced, escalating trade tensions and injecting fresh uncertainty into the financial markets.
At the same time, U.S. macro data disappointed. The latest Advance GDP reading came at 1.4% versus 2.8% expected, with the previous figure revised sharply lower. This raises serious questions about the real strength of the U.S. economy and increases the probability of continued market volatility in the weeks ahead.
Against this macro backdrop, let’s break down the technical outlook and trading scenarios for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and Gold for the week ahead.
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EUR/USD spent the previous week consolidating, forming a second corrective leg after the initial bounce attempt. Momentum remains fragile, and price is currently testing a key technical confluence.
Price is retesting a broken range on the daily chart.
The market is hovering around a major volume profile balance zone, aligned with the 200-day and 50-day moving averages.
This area represents a strong dynamic support cluster.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as this support zone holds, EUR/USD may form a short-term base and attempt a recovery toward 1.1220 – 1.1240 and potentially higher.
On the H4 chart, look for bullish divergence (lower lows on price, higher lows on MACD) as a potential confirmation for long setups.
Bearish Scenario:
A clean break below the recent daily lows (around the 1.1470 region) would invalidate the bullish recovery scenario.
In that case, the strategy shifts to selling rallies, aligning with early signs of momentum slowdown visible on the weekly chart.
Bias: Neutral-to-bullish above support, bearish continuation if daily structure breaks.
GBP/USD remains highly correlated with EUR/USD but is showing early warning signs of weakness on higher timeframes.
The pair failed to decisively break above the recent highs near the 1.40 zone.
A bearish divergence is forming on the weekly timeframe.
Price is approaching a critical confluence of:
Prior daily lows
Rising trendline support
Volume profile balance zone
If it will manage to hold, the pound can start fighting back and climb the peak.
Bullish Scenario:
If price completes a corrective move into the support cluster and forms a bullish divergence on H4, short-term long opportunities may appear.
From this zone, GBP/USD could attempt a relief rally back toward recent highs.
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break below the daily low and rising trendline would be a strong technical signal.
In this case, the medium-term plan is to sell retracements, in line with the developing weekly bearish divergence.
Bias: Range-bound in the short term, medium-term bearish if support breaks.
GBP/JPY remains one of the cleanest bearish technical structures across the FX market.
A major bearish divergence on the weekly chart remains active.
The pair printed a strong bearish engulfing candle, signaling potential distribution at the top.
The daily structure has shifted to lower lows, confirming bearish continuation.
The previous support zone is now acting as resistance.
The volume profile balance area and the upper range form a clear supply zone.
As long as price holds below this resistance cluster, the bias remains firmly bearish.
Bias: Bearish continuation – preference to sell rallies into resistance.
Gold remains near historically overbought conditions on higher timeframes. Despite strong geopolitical risk premiums, the technical picture suggests exhaustion at elevated levels.
if the price manages to hold it and break it down below, that’s a really good sign for the sell.
Price is testing a major long-term supply zone.
This zone marks the area where sellers previously accumulated positions before a sharp bearish expansion.
The market remains extended relative to long-term averages.
Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias):
As long as Gold remains capped below the major supply zone, rallies are considered corrective.
Breakdowns from local consolidation ranges may provide sell opportunities aligned with higher-timeframe overbought conditions.
Bullish Invalidation:
A sustained breakout and acceptance above the supply zone would invalidate the bearish bias and require a full reassessment.
Bias: Bearish while below major resistance – preference to sell rallies.
Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.
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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!
Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club
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