Stocks Drift As Caution Reigns Before Jackson Hole: Markets Wrap

Stocks churned after a rally that drove the market to its best week in 2024 as traders awaited more clues on the scope of potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

With the central bank approaching a crucial pivot point, it’s difficult to overstate how much attention financial markets will be paying. For starters, they’re looking for confirmation from Jerome Powell Friday that the Fed will lower rates in September. But more drama surrounds what happens after that and the pace of additional cuts over the next several months as the Fed confronts the dual risks to both inflation and employment.

“Last week, investors ‘climbed a wall of worry’ as the stock market relief rally gained momentum,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler. “Equities will likely consolidate ahead of Fed commentary at Jackson Hole this week.”

The S&P 500 fluctuated. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. agreed to buy server maker ZT Systems in a deal valued at $4.9 billion. Estée Lauder Cos. gave a disappointing sales forecast. Lowe’s Cos, Target Corp. and TJX Cos are among the major retail names reporting this week.

Treasury 10-year yields rose one basis point to 3.89%. The yen outperformed among Group-of-10 currencies, up about 1% ahead of key central bank events later in the week. Gold fell after hitting a record high.

“With the Jackson Hole Symposium — and Chairman Powell’s speech coming on Friday — there will be some good reasons for investors to sit on their hands this week,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “Yes, quite a few retailers are reporting earnings this week. However, the data that tends to move the markets in a significant way will be absent this week.”

A bumpy stretch for traders across financial markets in the dog days of July and August hasn’t tempered their zest for stocks, with allocations to the asset class still robust despite a bout of recent volatility and heightened uncertainty around the economic outlook.

Investors continued to snap up shares, with US equity funds just logging their seventh-consecutive week of inflows, according to the latest data from Bank of America Corp. and EPFR Global.

Equity positioning is back up to moderately overweight, a week after sliding to underweight, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte and Binky Chadha, who said exposure remains well below the mid-July highs at the top of the historical band

US stocks are poised to rally in the next four weeks on positive technical equity dynamics and a tailwind from corporate buybacks, according to Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“The pain trade for equities is higher and the bar for being bearish at the beach into a Labor Day barbecue party is high,” Rubner wrote in a note to clients Monday.

Recent economic data and earnings readouts have reinvigorated confidence among JPMorgan Chase & Co. traders that US stocks can rally into the end of the year.

“While upside appears to be more muted than when we adopted this stance earlier this year, there remains material upside,” the team led by Andrew Tyler wrote in a note to clients.

If the S&P 500 can finish higher today it will stretch the current streak of daily gains to eight, the longest winning streak since last November and tied with six other periods for the longest winning streak since 2009, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group.

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Of the prior streaks, the S&P 500’s 6.8% rally during this period ranks as the strongest. Looking forward, even after seven straight days of gains, the S&P 500 tended to show gains going forward with median gains of 0.58% and 0.96% over the following week and month with gains just under three-quarters of the time, Bespoke said.

The trajectory for stocks is likely to be dictated by the week-to-week cadence of macroeconomic data until August’s key jobs report, due in the first week of September, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.

“The true test for the market will be the August jobs report,” they wrote. “A strong jobs report that reverses July’s softness will provide confidence that growth risks have subsided for now. Another weak report would likely lead to growth concerns resurfacing.”

“While we do remain generally bullish, we don’t see a straight line up in the market, as the economy is slowing and there will likely be a mix of conflicting economic data points over the coming months, which is set to continue this recessionary debate,” said Greg Marcus at UBS Private Wealth Management.

Marcus believes the Fed is on track to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, barring a significant shock to the downside between now and the September meeting.

“Investors should be extending duration with their cash holdings in preparation for rate cuts,” he said. “It’s important to diversify within U.S. stocks and prepare for a broadening out in the market, as we believe this broadening of market participation is likely to include value stocks and small caps.”

“Three recent economic reports on inflation, jobs, and retail sales offered reasons for investors to maintain their bullish bias and allow them to conclude that the economy remains resilient, inflation continues its downward glide path, and the outlook for consumer spending is still supportive,” said Sam Stovall at CFRA. “In addition, history offers two precedents that suggest (but not guarantee) that the market remains on the road to recovery.”

Last week’s VIX spike to a closing level of 38.57 from a sub-14 reading on July 16 does not imply that a deeper decline lies ahead. During all S&P 500 selloffs of 5% or more since 1992, the VIX closed above 37 six times while in the pullback phase (a decline of 5.0%-9.9%). In four of these times, the total peak-to-trough decline for the S&P was less than 10%, while the other two resulted in selloffs of 16.0% and 10.2%, Stovall said.

Corporate Highlights:

Estée Lauder Chief Executive Officer Fabrizio Freda plans to retire at the end of June 2025, capping a decade-and-a-half reign that transformed the company into a global cosmetics giant but ran into trouble in recent years.
General Motors Co. is cutting more than 1,000 software engineers as the automaker moves to lean up its software and services organization, said a person familiar with the matter.
Circle K operator Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. made a proposal to take over much larger rival and 7-Eleven owner Seven & i Holdings Co., in what would be the biggest foreign takeover of a Japanese company. A merger would create the world’s top operator of roughly 100,000 convenience stores.

Key events this week:

China loan prime rates, Tuesday
Eurozone CPI, Tuesday
US Federal Reserve minutes, BLS preliminary annual payrolls revision, Wednesday
Eurozone HCOB PMI, consumer confidence, Thursday
ECB publishes account of July rate decision, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, S&P Global PMI, Thursday
Japan CPI, Friday
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to attend special session at Japan’s parliament to discuss July 31 rate hike, Friday
US new home sales, Friday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks