Hi Traders! GBPAUD short and mid term forecast is here. The way I would like to analyze the chart for setups is based on multi-timeframe confirmations because in my POV if we get more evidences on different timeframes for the same direction then it makes the setup much more reliable. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club Spoiler alert – free memberships are available! Let’s start our analysis from the highest timeframe which will be the daily chart here.
On the daily chart, we had a strong bullish rally, currently it looks like this bullish rally has completed itself and a correction is happening. We could see that the price which was moving higher has created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed at 1.89788 and the second high that has formed at 1.92205 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved lower and broke below the last low at 1.87596 thus forming a classical setup of bearish divergence followed by bearish convergence, we may consider these as evidences of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish convergence we may look for corrections and then further continuation lower. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bearish signal here at the cross of -DI (red line) versus +DI (green line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25 which we may consider as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. So basically, I expect the price to move lower further here after pullbacks.
Looking at the H4 chart, we could see that the price which was moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. Also, while measuring the first two waves of this bearish trend pattern using the Fibonacci expansion tool we have a key support zone that has formed based on the 161.8%(1.87052) Fibonacci expansion level of the first wave and the 100%(1.86838) Fibonacci expansion level of the second wave. Price has currently reached this key support zone and in addition to this, we have a potential bullish divergence that has formed between the first low that has formed at 1.88010 and the second current low that has formed at 1.87047 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as evidence of bullish pressure. Also, based on the Stochastic Oscillator we could see that the price has reached its extreme which we may consider as another evidence favoring the short term bullish view. So based on all this, my short expectation is bullish and my mid term expectation is bearish here.
GBPAUD D1(Daily) Chart Analysis
GBPAUD H4(4 Hours) Chart Analysis
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Arvinth Akash
Traders Academy Club Team
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