Categories: Fundamental Analysis

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rise Less Than Expected

The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits rose marginally from near a 49-year low last week, suggesting underlying strength in the labor market and broader economy.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ended Dec. 15, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims had dropped to 206,000 in the prior week, close to the 202,000 reached in mid-September, which was the lowest level since December 1969.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims increasing to 216,000 in the latest week.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday for the fourth time this year, but forecast fewer rate hikes next year and signaled its tightening cycle is nearing an end in the face of financial market volatility and slowing global growth.

The U.S. central bank said “the labor market has continued to strengthen,” and described job gains as having been “strong, on average, in recent months.”

The Labor Department said no claims were estimated last week. Claims have been volatile in recent weeks, with some economists saying an early Thanksgiving holiday had pulled forward seasonal layoffs, throwing off a model that the government uses to smooth the data for seasonal fluctuations.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,750 to 222,000 last week. A jump in filings to an eight-month high of 235,000 during the week ended Nov. 24 had stirred concerns the labor market was slowing.

Last week’s claims data covered the survey period for the nonfarm payrolls component of December’s employment report. Claims fell 11,000 between the November and December survey weeks, suggesting some improvement in job growth this month.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs last month after surging by 237,000 in October.

November’s slowdown in job growth was largely blamed on a shortage of workers amid a tight labor market. The unemployment rate is near a 49-year low of 3.7 percent and not too far from the Fed’s forecast of 3.5 percent by the end of 2019.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 27,000 to 1.69 million for the week ended Dec. 8.

The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims rose 6,750 to 1.67 million.

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Vladimir Ribakov

Following 11+ years of trading experience, trading my own accounts as well as for hedge funds and brokerages, I have decided to fulfill my destiny and to personally mentor Forex and Commodities traders. When I released the “Broker Nightmare” (software that hides trades from brokers) 8 years ago, I found an overwhelming number of frustrated people who genuinely wanted to learn how to trade the Forex market, but instead found themselves scammed and misled. Over the years I have also release other trading systems based on my trading strategies, and met a lot of people on my worldwide Forex seminars. We’ve formed a close Forex community and we meet once or twice a year in various locations in Europe.

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