Fundamental Analysis

UK manufacturing growth hit five-month high before EU vote: PMI

Employees work on sewing machines at the Fashion Enter factory in London England, January 8, 2016. REUTERS/Eddie Keogh

British manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in five months in June before Britons voted to leave the European Union last week, according to a survey conducted almost entirely before the historic referendum.

The Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 in June from 50.4 in May.

That was the strongest reading since January and better than all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists, whose consensus forecast was a reading of 49.9.

But data company Markit warned on Friday that “almost all” the data from manufacturers used in its survey were received before the June 23 referendum.

“With 99 percent of survey responses received before the end of 23rd June, the latest PMI signalled that the manufacturing sector has started to move out of its early year sluggishness in the lead up to the UK’s EU referendum,” said Markit economist Rob Dobson.

“Whether this growth recovery can be sustained will depend heavily on whether the current financial and political volatility spills over to the real economy.”

Economists polled by Reuters last week suggested the chances Britain would fall into a recession after last week’s vote were slightly better than 50 percent.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank would probably need to pump more stimulus into Britain’s economy over the summer to cope with the shock of the vote.

Markit’s survey showed British manufacturing exports rose at the fastest pace in seven months.

“The big question is whether any negative impact from uncertainty can be partly offset by a boost to exports resulting from the fall in the pound,” Dobson said.

Source: Reuters

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Vladimir Ribakov

Following 11+ years of trading experience, trading my own accounts as well as for hedge funds and brokerages, I have decided to fulfill my destiny and to personally mentor Forex and Commodities traders. When I released the “Broker Nightmare” (software that hides trades from brokers) 8 years ago, I found an overwhelming number of frustrated people who genuinely wanted to learn how to trade the Forex market, but instead found themselves scammed and misled. Over the years I have also release other trading systems based on my trading strategies, and met a lot of people on my worldwide Forex seminars. We’ve formed a close Forex community and we meet once or twice a year in various locations in Europe.

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