Who is winning between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? What the final polls tell us?

 

 

See who is winning according to the latest poll results from the major agencies.

The final national and state-wide polls are starting to come in with 24 hours to go until the first booths open in the US election.

The news is mostly good for Hillary Clinton who appears to have ridden out a last-minute scare over an FBI investigation into some more of her emails, which had been giving Donald Trump momentum.

The FBI gave Ms Clinton the all-clear on Sunday, and the final poll for NBC News/Wall Street Journal came out shortly afterwards showing the Democrat on a four-point lead among likely voters.

Here’s a breakdown of the latest poll from each of the five major pollsters, plus the aggregate score from Real Clear Politics.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal – Clinton +4

Final

Released on Sunday, the final NBC/WSJ poll put Ms Clinton on 44 points, with Mr Trump on 40. It placed Libertarian party candidate Gary Johnson at six per cent and Green Party Candidate Jill Stein had 2 per cent of support.

Making it a hypothetical head to head among likely voters, Ms Clinton’s lead rose to 5 points, with 48 per cent to Mr Trump’s 43 per cent.

Ms Clinton’s 4 point lead was down from the 11-point edge she enjoyed in the previous NBC/WSJ poll in mid-October, 48 percent to 37 percent, the pollster said.

ABC/Washington Post –  Clinton +5

Latest

The latest results from the ABC/Washington Post tracking poll, released on Sunday morning, showed Ms Clinton 5 points ahead of Mr Trump.

That’s significant, because this is the same poll that gave Mr Trump a shock lead last week in the immediate aftermath of the new FBI email investigation.

The pollster said enthusiasm now stands roughly at parity between the candidates’ supporters. And it said that, importantly, 55 per cent of Clinton backers say the main reason they are voting for her is because they support her, compared with 43 per cent of Trump voters. More Trump voters say they are voting for him mainly because they oppose Ms Clinton.

CBS News/New York Times – Clinton +3

Final

In its final edition of the pre-election polling season, released on Thursday, CBS/NYT found Ms Clinton commanded the support of 45 per cent of likely voters, with Mr Trump on 42 per cent. Gary Johnson had slipped to 5 per cent, and Jill Stein was at 4 per cent.

The New York Times noted that after a “historically ugly presidential campaign”, eight in 10 voters said the election had left them disgusted rather than excited by US politics.

Among Republican voters, it found that more (41 per cent) felt the Trump candidacy had been bad for the party, than those (39 per cent) who thought it had been good. As many as 85 per cent said they saw the party as “divided” rather than “united”.

A large majority from both sides of the debate said they would accept the result if their candidate lost, though the number saying they would ‘probably not accept it” was greater among Trump supporters (27 per cent) than Clinton voters (11 per cent).

CNN-Opinion Research Corporation – Clinton +5

Latest

The last CNN/ORC national poll was released on 25 October, and showed Ms Clinton on 49 per cent to Mr Trump’s 44 per cent heading into the final two weeks, with Mr Johnson on 3 per cent and Ms Stein on 2 per cent.

It found that taking the third-party candidates out of the mix, Ms Clinton’s margin widens by a point to 51 per cent compared to Mr Trump’s 45 per cent.

Fox News – Clinton +2

Latest

Fox News gives Ms Clinton 45 per cent in a four-way race, compared to Mr Trump’s 43 per cent. Mr Johnson gets 5 per cent and Ms Stein 2 per cent.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday and published on Saturday 5 November.

The broadcaster notes that its “new” poll – unclear if it will be its last – shows Ms Clinton’s lead has dwindled from +3 in a Fox News poll one week earlier.

While other pollsters find a greater Clinton lead when third-party candidates are taken out of the mix, Fox’s head-to-head results were 46-45 – one point in Ms Clinton’s favour. That is a big drop from a +5 for Ms Clinton in the head-to-head a week earlier.

Aggregate RCP Score – Clinton +2.2

The Real Clear Politics polling resource, which tracks a broader number of polls than the five most-trusted above, gives Ms Clinton an average of 44.6 per cent of the vote, compared to Mr Trump’s 42.4 per cent, as of Monday morning. It gives Gary Johnson 4.8 per cent and Jill Stein 1.8 per cent.

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