Hi Traders! Bitcoin short term forecast follow up and update is here. On June 11th I shared this “Bitcoin Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the HomeTrader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, the price which is moving lower has broken below the most recent uptrend line which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Also, based on the Heikin Ashi candles we can see that currently, we have strong bearish bodies in downward moving market conditions so it basically reflects a bearish environment. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bearish signal here at the cross of -DI (red line) versus +DI (green line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads a value over 25 which we may consider as another evidence of bearish pressure. Also, we had a strong support zone that has formed and the price which is moving lower has broken below this zone and is holding below it, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Currently, this strong support zone is acting as a strong resistance zone for us. Until this strong resistance zone (marked in red) shown in the image below holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.
In Bitcoin on the H1 chart based on the above mentioned analysis until the strong resistance zone holds I was expecting the price to move lower further in the short term after pullbacks. The price moved exactly as I expected it to here. After the most recent uptrend line breakout, the pullback that I was looking for happened and then the price moved lower further and delivered a fantastic move to the downside!
On the M15 chart, the market provided us with facts supporting the bearish view. The price which was moving inside a range, broke below the bottom of it and retested the breakout. We may consider this as a fact provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower further and provided a fantastic move to the downside!
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
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