Fundamental Analysis

Oil Gains On Lack Of Progress On US-Iran Talks, Hormuz Shipping Still Disrupted

Oil prices extended gains on Thursday, rising more than $1 on stalled peace talks ‌between Iran and the United States and continued restrictions on trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures rose $1.47, or 1.4%, to $103.38 a barrel by 0931 GMT after settling above $100 for the first time in more than two weeks on ​Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate futures were up $1.40, or 1.5%, at $94.36.

Both benchmarks closed more than $3 higher on ​Wednesday after larger than expected draws on U.S. stocks of gasoline and distillates, plus ⁠the lack of progress on Iran peace talks.

“The market may now be on the verge of a ​shift from ‘a deal is imminent’ to ‘this may take much longer’. If the expectation of an early May reopening ​breaks … then prices will likely reprice higher, both in crude and products,” said SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.

While U.S. President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire between the countries after a request by Pakistani mediators, Iran and the U.S. are still restricting transit of ​ships through the strait that carried about 20% of daily global oil supplies until the war began on ​February 28.

Iran seized two ships in the waterway on Wednesday, tightening its grip on the strategic chokepoint. Trump has also maintained ‌a ⁠U.S. Navy blockade of Iran’s trade by sea while Iranian parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has said that a full ceasefire only made sense if the blockade is lifted.

The U.S. military has intercepted at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in Asian waters and is redirecting them away from positions near India, Malaysia and ​Sri Lanka, shipping and ​security sources said on ⁠Wednesday.

Trump has not set an end date for the extended ceasefire, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

US EXPORTS SET RECORD HIGH

On energy trade, total exports of ​crude oil and petroleum products from the United States climbed by 137,000 barrels ​per day ⁠to a record 12.88 million bpd as Asian and European countries bought supplies after disruptions from the Iran war.

U.S. crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories rose ⁠by 1.9 ​million barrels, compared with expectations for a draw of 1.2 million ​barrels in a Reuters poll of analysts.

U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 4.6 million barrels against analyst expectations of 1.5 million barrels. Distillate ​stockpiles dropped by 3.4 million barrels versus expectations of 2.5 million barrels.

Source

Arvinth Akash

Recent Posts

Overtrading in Forex: Why Traders Force Trades and How to Stop

Have you ever opened your trading platform, watched the market move, and felt that you…

11 hours ago

How Employment Data Affects Forex: Jobs Growth and Currency Strength

Employment data is one of the most important economic indicators in Forex fundamental analysis. It…

2 days ago

Weekly Forex Forecast: Sell EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY, Gold and S&P 500 – 18 October 2026

Welcome back to our weekly Forex forecast at Home Trader Club. This week, we are…

4 days ago

How GDP Affects Forex: What Traders Need to Know About Economic Growth

GDP growth is one of the most important indicators of economic health. But does stronger…

1 week ago

How the Federal Reserve Affects Forex and the US Dollar

When it comes to fundamental Forex analysis, few institutions matter as much as the Federal…

2 weeks ago

How Interest Rate Expectations Move the Forex Market

Interest rates are one of the most important fundamental forces in the Forex market. But…

2 weeks ago