Hi Traders! SP500 short term forecast update and follow up is here. On September 11th, 2024 I shared this “SP500 Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
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My Idea
On the H1 chart, based on the Heikin Ashi candles we can see that currently, we have strong bearish bodies in downward moving market conditions so it basically reflects a bearish environment. Also, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. Currently it looks like a correction is happening and also, there are no signs opposing this short term bearish view at the moment. Also, we had two strong support zones that has formed and the price which is moving lower has broken below these zones and is holding below them, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Currently, these strong support zones are acting as strong resistance zones for us. Until these two strong resistance zones (marked in red) shown in the image below hold my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.
In SP500 based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bearish and until the two strong resistance zones hold I was expecting the price to move lower further after pullbacks. The price action didn’t follow my analysis here and this idea failed. After the bearish trend pattern, the price which was moving higher reached the first strong resistance zone, respected it and provided a short move to the downside. The price then moved higher further and we got a valid breakout above the second strong resistance zone thus invalidating this short-term bearish view. My current view on SP500 is neutral.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand why we should always trade based on the facts and hints provided by the market and take the right actions according to that. Even though we had various facts supporting the bearish view here, the price didn’t hold in the second strong resistance zone as I expected it to and broke above it, which is a contradictory sign provided by the market opposing the bearish view. Also, you should keep in mind that losses are part of trading we can’t expect every trade to go as per our plan and provide us profits. In trading, we can’t avoid losses but in order to be successful in trading, we should know how to cut losses early and how to manage the trade when the price goes in the opposite direction.
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Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
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