Hi Traders! AUDCHF short term forecast update and follow up is here. On February 29th 2024 I shared this “AUDCHF Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, we have a strong resistance zone that has formed and the price which is moving higher reached this zone, respected it and bounced lower from this zone. Also, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. Currently it looks like a correction is happening and also based on the Stochastic Oscillator we could see that the price has reached it’s extreme which we may consider as another evidence of bearish pressure. So the bottom line here is that, everything looks good here as well for the bears and I expect the price to move lower further in the short term after pullbacks until the strong resistance zone (marked in red) shown in the image below holds.
In this pair based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bearish and until the strong resistance zone holds I was expecting the price to move lower further after pullbacks. The price action didn’t follow my analysis here and this idea failed. After the bearish trend pattern the price which was moving higher reached the strong resistance zone and provided a short move to the downside. The price then moved higher further and we got a valid breakout above this strong resistance zone thus invalidating this short-term bearish view. My current view on AUDCHF is neutral.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand why we should always trade based on the facts and hints provided by the market and take the right actions according to that. Even though we had various facts supporting the bearish view here, the price didn’t hold in the strong resistance zone as I expected it to and broke above it, which is a contradictory sign provided by the market opposing the bearish view. Also, you should keep in mind that losses are part of trading we can’t expect every trade to go as per our plan and provide us profits. In trading, we can’t avoid losses but in order to be successful in trading, we should know how to cut losses early and how to manage the trade when the price goes in the opposite direction.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
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