Hi Traders! Bitcoin short term forecast update and follow up is here. On September 23rd, 2025 I shared this “Bitcoin Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
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My Idea
On the H1 chart, we could see that currently we have a strong bearish momentum here as well. Also while measuring this strong bearish move we have two key resistance zones that has formed. The first key resistance zone is formed based on the 23.6%(113094.34) – 38.2%(114033.53) Fibonacci retracement levels of the strong bearish move. The second key resistance zone is formed based on the 50%(114792.60) – 61.8%(115551.67) Fibonacci retracement levels of the strong bearish move. Until both these key resistance zones shown in the image below (marked in red) holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.
On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view. The price which was moving higher created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed at 112839.48 and the second high that has formed at 114017.01 based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. The price then moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line. We may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower further and provided a nice move to the downside.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bearish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at the majority of the time and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions accordingly.
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Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
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