The new trading week begins after an extremely volatile period across global markets. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and a surprising shift in US employment data have created significant uncertainty and new trading opportunities.

One of the biggest surprises came from the latest Non-Farm Payroll report, which showed a loss of 92,000 jobs. This negative reading raises concerns about the strength of the US labor market and puts additional pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions.

Combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns, this environment could create heightened volatility across currencies, commodities, and equities.

Let’s break down the key technical setups and trading scenarios for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, and the S&P 500.

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EUR/USD Forecast – Bearish Momentum with Two Possible Scenarios

The EUR/USD continues to trade under bearish pressure after failing to break above recent highs. The pair remains aligned with a structure of lower highs and lower lows, confirming short-term bearish momentum.

Technical indicators also support this view, as price action and momentum indicators are moving in sync.

Scenario 1 – Sell the Rallies

The preferred scenario is a corrective move higher before continuation to the downside.

Potential correction structures include:

• ABCD corrective pattern

• Short-term consolidation range

• Bearish channel retracement

If the pair approaches the upper boundary of the bearish channel or supply zones, this could create strong selling opportunities.

Key downside targets:

• 1.1500

• 1.1400

As long as resistance levels hold, rallies are likely to attract selling pressure.

Scenario 2 – Final Drop Before Reversal

Another possibility is a final move lower that clears the major daily lows.

If this occurs, traders should watch for:

• Lower lows on price

• Higher lows on the MACD

This bullish divergence could signal the start of a corrective rally and potential buying opportunities.

Bottom line:
Short-term momentum remains bearish. Prefer selling rallies unless a clear bullish divergence develops after a new low.

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GBP/USD Forecast – Bearish Structure Favors Selling Rallies

The GBP/USD recently completed the expected move lower that cleaned previous lows. The current technical structure suggests that sellers remain firmly in control.

A key technical development is the false breakout combined with bearish divergence, which often signals a deeper correction ahead.

The last time this pattern appeared, the pair experienced a significant decline.

Key Technical Signals

• Synchronization between price action and indicators

• Lower highs and lower lows forming on the 4-hour chart

• Bearish divergence on higher timeframes

• 50 and 200 moving averages crossing downward

This moving average cross with a bearish slope strengthens the bearish outlook.

Trading Plan

In the short term, GBP/USD may retrace higher early in the week.

Important resistance areas include:

• Broken support turning into resistance

• Previous swing highs

• The 50/200 moving average zone

These levels could offer sell opportunities on rallies.

Traders should also watch for hidden bearish divergence (lower highs on price with higher highs on the MACD histogram), which would further support downside continuation.

Bottom line:
Short-term retraces are possible, but the overall plan remains sell the rallies.

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Gold Forecast – Bearish Pressure While Key Highs Hold

Gold recently reacted strongly from a major supply area and has started moving lower after respecting the resistance zone.

A broken trendline is now acting as resistance, confirming growing bearish pressure.

Scenario 1 – Range Then Breakdown

Gold could retest the broken trendline and develop a short consolidation range before continuing lower.

If price breaks below the range, the next downside targets include:

• 4900

• 4850

• 4500 – 4400 zone

These levels represent major support areas on higher timeframes.

Scenario 2 – Temporary Bullish Restructure

A less likely scenario would involve gold forming higher highs and higher lows, signaling short-term bullish momentum.

If this happens, the market may push higher to clean the daily highs before turning lower again.

Traders should then watch for bearish divergence to signal the next selling opportunity.

Bottom line:
As long as current highs hold, the preferred scenario remains bearish continuation toward lower support levels.

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S&P 500 Forecast – Short-Term Correction in Progress

The S&P 500 experienced heavy selling pressure toward the end of the week, with major stocks closing sharply lower.

Despite the recent drop, the long-term bullish trend may not be over. However, markets appear to be entering a corrective phase.

Key Technical Developments

• Multiple false breakouts at the highs

  
  

• Breakdown from a wedge pattern

  
  

• Formation of lower highs and lower lows

  
  

These signals suggest that the index has entered a short-term bearish cycle.

Downside Targets

If the bearish structure continues, the next key support zones include:

• 6500

• 6460 area

• 6400 – 6200 range

• 6100 major support

 

 

These levels correspond with previous resistance areas that may now act as support.

Trading Outlook

As long as recent highs remain intact, short-term rallies could provide selling opportunities during this corrective phase.

Bottom line:
The long-term bull trend may remain intact, but a deeper correction toward 6500–6100 appears possible before the next major rally.

Pro Trading Tip

Every forecast above is paired with two scenarios. Why? Because great trading is not about being right — it’s about being ready. Let the market confirm the bias. Use your system, manage risk, and execute only when the structure and confirmation align.

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Wishing you a profitable week ahead!

Vladimir Ribakov
Internationally Certified Financial Technician
Home Trader Club