Hi Traders! GBPAUD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On November 8th 2023 I shared this “GBPAUD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, the price which is moving higher has created a bullish trend pattern in the form of three higher highs, higher lows, we may consider this as evidence of bullish pressure. Generally, after a bullish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then potential continuation higher. Currently it looks like a correction is happening and also there are no signs opposing this short term bullish view at the moment. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bullish signal here at the cross of +DI (green line) versus -DI (red line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bullish pressure. Also, we had two strong resistance zones that has formed and the price which was moving higher has broken above these zones and is holding above them. After the breakout these strong resistance zones are acting as two strong support zones for us. Until both these strong support zones shown in the image below (marked in green) holds my short term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further after pullbacks.
Based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bullish here and I was expecting the price to move higher further until the two strong support zones hold. The price action followed my analysis here exactly as I expected it to. After the bullish trend pattern, the price which was moving lower reached the first strong support zone, respected it and then it bounced higher from this zone. The price then moved higher further and delivered 270+ pips move to the upside!
On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bullish view. The price which was moving lower created a bullish divergence between the first low at 1.90614 and the second low at 1.90371 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved higher and broke above the most recent downtrend line, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Also, there were no signs opposing this short term bullish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved higher after that and provided a wonderful move to the upside.
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bullish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us with the majority of the time and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions accordingly.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
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