Hi Traders! NZDUSD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On December 14th, 2023 I shared this “NZDUSD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, based on the Heikin Ashi candles we can see that currently, we have strong bullish bodies in upward moving market conditions so it basically reflects a bullish environment. In addition to this, we could see that the price which is moving higher has created higher highs based on the MACD indicator, which is a sign of gaining momentum towards the bullish side. Also, the price has broken above the most recent downtrend line and is currently holding above it, we may consider these as other evidence of bullish pressure. Currently, it looks like a pullback is happening. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bullish signal here at the cross of +DI (green line) versus -DI (red line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bullish pressure. Also we had a strong resistance zone that have formed and the price which is moving higher has broken above this zone and is holding above it. After the breakout, this strong resistance zone is acting as a strong support zone for us. So everything looks good here for the bulls and until the strong support zone (marked in green) shown in the image below holds my short-term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further after pullbacks.
On the H1 chart, based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bullish here and I was expecting the price to move higher further after pullbacks until the strong support zone holds. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. After the higher highs, the pullback that I was looking for happened and then the price moved higher further as I expected it and delivered around 200 pips move to the upside!
We had facts supporting the bullish view on the M15 chart. After the higher highs, we had a flat correction in the form of a range and the price which was respecting this range moved higher and broke above the top of it. We may consider this as a hint provided by the market supporting the bullish view and also there were no signs opposing this bullish view. We then had a pullback with the price retesting the breakout and it moved higher further and provided a wonderful move to the upside as you can see in the image below.
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
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