Hi Traders! US Dollar Index short term forecast update and follow up is here. On July 18th 2024 I shared this “US Dollar Index Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
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My Idea
On the H4 chart, based on the Heikin Ashi candles we can see that currently, we have strong bearish bodies in downward-moving market conditions so it basically reflects a bearish environment. In addition to this, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, and lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then a further continuation lower. Currently, it looks like a correction is happening. Also, we had a strong support zone that has formed and the price which is moving lower has broken below this zone and is holding below it, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bearish pressure. Currently, this strong support zone is acting as a strong resistance zone for us. Until this strong resistance zone (marked in red) shown in the image below holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.
Based on the above-mentioned analysis, on the H4 chart, my short term view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the strong resistance zone holds. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. After the bearish trend pattern, the pullback that I was looking for happened and most importantly the price was holding below the strong resistance zone. The price then moved lower further as I expected it and delivered an amazing move to the downside!
On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view. The price which was moving higher created a bearish divergence between the first high formed on 29th July 2024 and the second high formed on 30th July 2024 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line. We may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower further after that and provided an amazing move to the downside!
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.
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Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
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