USDCAD Short Term Forecast Follow Up And Update

Hi Traders! USDCAD short term forecast follow up and update is here. On December 16th 2025 I shared this “Forex Market Analysis & Day Trading Opportunity | USDCAD | 16 December 2025” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the  Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!

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My Idea

On the H4 chart, we have a strong bearish momentum and also currently there are no signs opposing this short term bearish view. So everything looks good for the bears here as well. In addition to this, we have two key resistance zones that has formed based on the volume profile zones of the KTLI indicator and the Triple B Pro pivot levels. Until both these key resistance zones shown in the image below (marked in red) holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.

 

 

 

USDCAD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario

Based on the above-mentioned analysis my short term view was bearish here and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the two key resistance zones hold. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. The price which was moving higher reached the second key resistance zone, respected it and moved lower from this zone and delivered 440+ pips move to the downside as you can see in the image below!

 

 

On the H4 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view. The price which was moving higher created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed at 1.39178 and the second high that has formed at 1.39279 based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. The price then moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line. We may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower further and provided a fantastic move to the downside!

 

 

So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bearish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at the majority of the time and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions accordingly.

For similar trade ideas and much more I invite you to

 

Happy Trading!

Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.