Hi Traders! USDJPY forecast update and follow up is here. On June 1st I shared this “USDJPY Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
In my point of view, on the H4 chart there are two possible scenarios, which are as follows:
Scenario 1
The price might move higher from the current zone and reach the key resistance zone formed by the 100%(110.599) Fibonacci expansion level of the first wave, respect it and move lower from this zone. Alternatively if the price moves higher further, breaks and holds above the invalidation level (marked in red line) then this bearish view will be invalidated.
Scenario 2
Alternatively if the price moves lower and if we get a valid breakout below the most recent uptrend line and the strong support zone, we may then consider it as a validation for the bearish view and then we may expect the price to continue lower further.
On the H4 chart my view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move as per two possible scenarios. The price action followed my analysis and moved as per scenario 1. The price moved higher and reached the key resistance zone formed by the 100%(110.599) Fibonacci expansion level of the first wave, respected it and bounced lower from this zone. We also had a false break with bearish divergence that has formed between the first high that has formed at 110.196 and the second high that has formed at 110.316 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view. Most importantly the price was holding below the invalidation level and there were no signs opposing this bearish view. The price then moved lower further and delivered around 120 pips move so far.
Not sure how to enter a trade? Spot reversals (bounces)? Not sure how to spot breakouts?
I invite you to join us in our live market analysis, on daily basis, and improve your trading with us.
Also, you can get one of our strategies free of charge. You will find all the details here
If you have any further questions, don’t hesitate to drop a comment below!
To your success,
Vladimir Ribakov
Certified Financial Technician
Advertisement
Hi Traders! Arvinth here from the Home Trader Club team. The weekly summary and, review of November…
U.S. stock index futures were subdued on Thursday, as AI-heavyweight Nvidia's revenue forecast failed to…
Hi Traders! Litecoin short term forecast and technical analysis is here. We do our analysis…
Hi Traders! NASDAQ short term forecast follow up and update is here. On September 4th…
Hi Traders! EURCAD technical analysis and short term forecast is here. We do our analysis…
Hi Traders! GBPNZD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On Sep 3rd,…