Forex Trade Updates

AUDUSD Short Term Forecast Follow Up and Update

Hi Traders! AUDUSD short term forecast follow up and update is here. On June 20th, 2024 I shared this “AUDUSD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the the Home Trader ClubSpoiler alert – free memberships are available!

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My Idea:

On the H4 chart, after the strong bullish move currently, it looks like a correction is happening in the form of a range. This range is formed by the highs and lows reaching parallel support and resistance zones. The price which is moving inside this range has currently reached near the top of the range. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bullish signal here at the cross of +DI (green line) versus -DI (red line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25, we may consider this as evidence of bullish pressure. So everything looks good here for the bulls and a valid breakout above the top of the range would be the validation for this bullish view. Alternatively, if we get a valid breakout below the bottom of this range then this bullish view will be invalidated.

 

 

 

AUDUSD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario

In this pair my short term view was bullish and I mentioned that “A valid breakout above the top of the range would be the validation for this bullish view. Alternatively, if we get a valid breakout below the bottom of this range then this bullish view will be invalidated.”. The validation for the short term bullish view which is a valid breakout above the top of the range happened here as per the plan. We then had a small pullback with the price retesting this breakout and most importantly there were no signs opposing this short term bullish view. The price then moved higher further as I expected it to and delivered 160+ pips move to the upside as you can see in the image below!

 

 

On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bullish view. The price which was moving lower created a bullish divergence between the first low that has formed at 0.66431 and the second low that has formed at 0.66335 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved higher and broke above the most recent downtrend line, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved higher after that and provided a wonderful move to the upside!

 

 

As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.

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If you have any further questions, don’t hesitate to drop a comment below!

 

Happy Trading!

Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.

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