Can Euro Bounce Back?

* Euro came under a lot of bearish pressure today against the US Dollar, as it traded close to the 1.0820 support area.

* The stated level holds a lot of importance for the EURUSD pair, as it acted as a support on many occasions earlier.

* Today, the German Retail Sales report released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland posted a decrease of 0.2% in Dec 2015.

* The yearly change was also on the lower side, as it increased 1.5%, less than the forecast of 2%.

German Retail Sales

There were many releases in the Euro Zone today. The most important one was the German Retail Sales, which evaluates the changes in sales of the German retail sector and was reported by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The market was expecting a rise of 0.5% in December 2015, compared with the preceding month. However, the result was a lot lower, as the German Retail Sales declined 0.2% in December 2015.

Looking at the yearly change, the German Retail Sales was forecasted to rise by 2% in December 2015, compared with Dec 2014. However, the output was again on the lower side, as the German Retail Sales gained 1.5%. In short, there was nothing in the report to encourage the Euro buyers. As a result, there was a downside reaction in the EURUSD pair.

The report added that “When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations (Census-X-12-ARIMA), the December turnover was in real terms 0.2% and in nominal terms 0.5% smaller than that in November 2015. Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the whole year 2015 in real terms 2.7% and in nominal terms 2.8% larger than in 2014”.

Technical Analysis – EURUSD

The EURUSD pair dived after the retail sales report, and tested the 1.0820 support area. There were a couple of support trend lines positioned around the stated level to prevent the downside move. If

buyers have to take the pair higher in the near term, then they have to prevent sellers breaking the 1.0820-00 support area. On the upside, the 1.0900 level can be seen as a resistance.

Vladimir Ribakov

Following 11+ years of trading experience, trading my own accounts as well as for hedge funds and brokerages, I have decided to fulfill my destiny and to personally mentor Forex and Commodities traders. When I released the “Broker Nightmare” (software that hides trades from brokers) 8 years ago, I found an overwhelming number of frustrated people who genuinely wanted to learn how to trade the Forex market, but instead found themselves scammed and misled. Over the years I have also release other trading systems based on my trading strategies, and met a lot of people on my worldwide Forex seminars. We’ve formed a close Forex community and we meet once or twice a year in various locations in Europe.