GBPAUD Short Term Forecast Update And Follow Up

Hi Traders! GBPAUD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On August 11th I shared this “GBPAUD Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!

My Idea

On the H1 chart, we have a strong resistance zone that has formed and the price which was moving higher reached this zone, respected it and is bouncing lower from this zone. Then the price which was moving lower broke below the last low at 1.88402 thus creating lower lows based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Currently it looks like the price is retesting this breakout. So everything looks good here for the bears and until the strong resistance zone holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower towards the 61.8% or the 100% Fibonacci expansion level. We may then look for possible buy opportunities with bullish evidences.

GBPAUD H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario

Based on the above-mentioned analysis, my short term view was bearish and I was expecting the price to move lower further. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. After the breakout of the most recent low at 1.88402, we had a pullback and then the price moved lower further and delivered around 100 pips move until it was blocked by a bullish divergence.
The market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view on the M15 chart. The H1 chart pullback happened in the form of double wave to the upside with the price creating a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed at 1.88382 and the second high that has formed at 1.88641 based on the macd indicator. Then the price moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line. We may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower and provided a fantastic move to the downside.

(Note: You can learn about a Killer Forex Strategy “Double Trend Line Principle” here)
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted us and took the right action according to that.

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Vladimir Ribakov
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Vladimir Ribakov

Following 11+ years of trading experience, trading my own accounts as well as for hedge funds and brokerages, I have decided to fulfill my destiny and to personally mentor Forex and Commodities traders. When I released the “Broker Nightmare” (software that hides trades from brokers) 8 years ago, I found an overwhelming number of frustrated people who genuinely wanted to learn how to trade the Forex market, but instead found themselves scammed and misled. Over the years I have also release other trading systems based on my trading strategies, and met a lot of people on my worldwide Forex seminars. We’ve formed a close Forex community and we meet once or twice a year in various locations in Europe.