Hi Traders! GBPCHF short term forecast follow-up and update is here. On March 16th 2023 I shared this “GBPCHF Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
Looking at the H1 chart, we could see that the price which was moving higher has created higher highs based on the MACD indicator, which is a sign of gaining momentum towards the bullish side. In addition to this, based on the Stochastic Oscillator we could see that the price has reached it’s extreme, which we may consider as yet another evidence of bullish pressure. Also, we had two strong resistance zones that have formed and the price which was moving higher has broken above these zones and is holding above them. After the breakout, these strong resistance zones are acting as two strong support zones for us. So based on all this, until both these strong support zones shown in the image below(marked in green) hold my short-term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further after pullbacks.
On the H1 chart, based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bullish here and I was expecting the price to move higher further after pullbacks until the two strong support zones hold. After the higher highs, the pullback that I was looking for happened with the price reaching the first strong support zone. The price respected this zone and then it moved higher further as I expected it to and delivered 250+ pips move to the upside!
On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bullish view. The price which was moving lower created a bullish divergence between the first low that has formed at 1.11661 and the second low that has formed at 1.11599 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved higher and broke above the most recent downtrend line, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved higher after that and provided an excellent move to the upside!
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
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