NZDCAD Short Term Forecast Update And Follow Up

Hi Traders! NZDCAD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On May 4th 2023 I shared this “NZDCAD Short Term Forecast And Technical Analysis” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the  Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!

My Idea

On the H4 chart, based on the Heikin Ashi candles we can see that currently, we have strong bullish bodies in upward moving market conditions so it basically reflects a bullish environment. Also, the price which is moving higher has created a bullish trend pattern in the form of three higher highs, higher lows, we may consider this as another evidence of bullish pressure. Generally, after a bullish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then potential continuation higher. Currently, it looks like a correction is happening. Also, we could see that the price which was moving higher has created higher highs based on the MACD indicator, which is a sign of gaining momentum towards the bullish side. In addition to this, the ADX indicator gave a bullish signal here at the cross of +DI (green line) versus -DI (red line) and the main signal line (silver line) reads value over 25, we may consider this as yet another evidence of bullish pressure. So everything looks good here for the bulls and until the strong support zone (marked in green) shown in the image below holds my short-term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further after pullbacks.

 

 

 

NZDCAD H4(4 Hours) Chart Current Scenario

On the H4 chart, based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bullish here and I was expecting the price to move higher further after pullbacks until the strong support zone holds. After the higher highs, the pullback that I was looking for happened with the price creating a bullish hidden divergence that has formed between the first low that has formed at 0.83432 and the second low that has formed at 0.83972 based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as a fact provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Most importantly the price was holding above the strong support zone. The price then moved higher further as I expected it to and delivered 130+ pips move to the upside as you can see in the image below.

 

 

On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bullish view. After the higher highs on the H4 chart, the price which was moving lower on the M15 chart created a bullish divergence between the first low that has formed at 0.84354 and the second low that has formed at 0.83972 based on the MACD indicator. The price then moved higher and broke above the most recent downtrend line, we may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved higher after that and provided a nice move to the upside!

 

 

As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction as per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.

For similar trade ideas and much more I invite you to

 

Happy Trading!

Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.

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