SP500 Short Term Forecast Update And Follow Up

Hi Traders! SP500 short term forecast update and follow up is here. On September 14th I shared this “Technical Analysis – SP500 Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!

My Idea

On the H1 chart, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. Currently it looks like a correction is happening and also based on the Stochastic Oscillator we could see that the price has reached it’s extreme which we may consider as another evidence of bearish pressure. In addition to this, currently there are no signs opposing this short term bearish view. Also while measuring the first wave of this correction, we have two key resistance zones that has formed. The first key resistance zone is formed by the 61.8% (4482.35) – 100% (4505.95) Fibonacci expansion level of the first wave. The second key resistance zone is formed by the 161.8% (4544.13) Fibonacci expansion level of the first wave. Until these two key resistance zones (marked in red) shown in the image below hold my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.

SP500 H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario

Based on the above-mentioned analysis my short term view was bearish here and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the two key resistance zones hold. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. The price which was moving higher reached the first key resistance zone, created a false breakout of it and then it moved lower from this zone and delivered a fantastic move to the downside as you can see in the image below!

On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bearish view. The price which was moving higher created a bearish divergence between the first high that has formed at 4508.03 and the second high that has formed at 4516.09 based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. The price then moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line. We may consider these as facts provided by the market supporting the bearish view and also there we no signs opposing this bearish view. Then as you can see in the image below how the price moved lower further and provided a fantastic move to the downside.

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So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bearish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at the majority of the time and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions accordingly.

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Happy Trading!

Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.

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Arvinth Akash