Hi Traders! EURNZD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On August 2nd 2023 I shared this “EURNZD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Home Trader Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H1 chart, the price which was moving higher has created a bullish trend pattern in the form of three higher highs, higher lows, we may consider this as evidence of bullish pressure. Generally, after a bullish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then potential continuation higher. Currently it looks like a correction has happened in the form of double wave to the downside. The price respected a strong support zone and bounced higher from this zone. Also, the price which is moving higher has broken above the most recent downtrend line, we may consider these as other evidences of bullish pressure. Also, based on the Heikin Ashi candles we can see that currently, we have strong bullish bodies in upward-moving market conditions so it basically reflects a bullish environment. So based on all this, until the strong support zone shown in the image below (marked in green) holds my short-term view remains bullish here and I expect the price to move higher further after pullbacks.
On the H1 chart, based on the above-mentioned analysis my short-term view was bullish here and I was expecting the price to move higher further after pullbacks until the strong support zone holds. The price action followed my analysis exactly as I expected it to here. After the breakout of the most recent downtrend line, the pullback that I was looking for happened. The price then moved higher further as I expected it to and delivered around 450 pips move to the upside as you can see in the image below!
On the M15 chart, the market provided us with various facts supporting the bullish view. The price which was moving lower created a bullish hidden divergence that has formed between the first low that has formed at 1.78309 and the second low that has formed at 1.79278 based on the MACD indicator, which we may consider as a fact provided by the market supporting the bullish view. Most importantly there were no signs opposing this bullish view. The price then moved higher further as I expected it to and delivered an amazing move to the upside as you can see in the image below.
As traders we always have two choices, the first one is to fall in love with our analysis and try to convince the market and expect the price to move in the direction per our wish. The second one is to follow the facts that the market provides us and make the right actions according to that. As you know the first option won’t help us and as you can see in the example above what happened when we followed the facts that the market hinted to us and took the right action according to that.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Home Trader Club Team.
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