EURUSD set to regain bid tone around 1.3770-50 (extract from Weekly Market Forecast 20th of April 2014)

The Euro traded lower during the last week, and tested the 1.3800 support level. The EURUSD was weak compared to some other major currency pairs. There is a trend line on the daily chart for the pair, and as long as the pair is trading above the highlighted trend line, then I think the pair might continue to trade higher in the coming days.

The pair might duplicate the last down wave, as highlighted in the chart below. The pair might fall back towards the 1.3770-50 support levels, and then start the next leg higher. So, if the pair moves down, trades closer to the mentioned support levels and forms a bullish divergence, then we can enter into a buy trade. Remember, the pair must hold the previous major support level for this trade setup to be valid.

Initial target should be around the 1.3880, and final target could be above the 1.3940 level. Stop should be placed below the 1.3680 level.

Major events scheduled in the upcoming week
Two speeches had a major impact during the last week on the Euro and US dollar. First one was Draghi’s speech, which highlighted the impact of rising Euro. This caused the Euro to open with a gap lower during the last week. The Fed’ Yellen was second. She sidelined the rumors of rate hike expectations, which in turn pressured the US dollar. The best-performing currency was the British pound, which higher after the back-to-back impressive economic releases in the UK. The economic releases in the US were also on the positive side. So, overall the market mostly traded in a range. Let’s see how the market shapes up in the upcoming week.

Let us look at all major events lined up in the upcoming week.
Sunday – Japan’s import, export and trade balance data.

Monday – Easter Holiday.

Tuesday – Canadian wholesale sales data, Euro zone consumer confidence, US existing home sales data, Australia’s CPI and Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI.

Wednesday – French manufacturing and services PMI, German manufacturing and services PMI, Euro zone manufacturing and services PMI, Canadian retail sales data, US new home sales data and RBNZ interest rate decision.

Thursday – German IFO business confidence index, US core durable goods orders, US initial jobless claims and Tokyo CPI.

Friday – UK retail sales, US services PMI and Michigan consumer sentiment.

This analysis is taken from Weekly Market Forecast, which also includes trade opportunities on: GBPUSD, EURGBP, USDJPY, NZDUSD, USDCAD, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURRUB, GOLD, OIL and INDICES.
Get it HERE: Vladimir’s Markets Forecast

Happy trading friends!