Natural Gas Short Term Forecast Update And Follow Up

Hi Traders! Natural Gas short term forecast update and follow up is here. On July 29th I shared this “Technical Analysis – Natural Gas Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!

My Idea

On the H1 chart, the price which is moving lower has created a bearish trend pattern in the form of three lower highs, lower lows which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. Generally, after a bearish trend pattern, we may expect corrections and then further continuation lower. Currently it looks like a correction is happening in the form of double wave to the upside. While measuring the first wave of this correction we have a key resistance zone that has formed by the 61.8%(4.063) – 100%(4.135) Fibonacci expansion levels. Until this key resistance zone holds my short term view remains bearish here and I expect the price to move lower further.

Natural Gas H1(1 Hour) Chart Current Scenario

Based on the above-mentioned analysis my short term view was bearish here and I was expecting the price to move lower further until the key resistance zone holds. After the bearish trend pattern the correction that I was looking for happened in the form of double wave to the upside. The price reached the key resistance zone, respected it and bounced lower from this zone. Also based on the Stochastic Oscillator we could see that the price had reached its extreme at this point of time. Then the price moved lower and broke below the most recent uptrend line which we may consider as evidences of bearish pressure. The price then moved lower further and provided a nice move to the downside as I expected it to in my forecast.

(Note: You can learn about a Killer Forex Strategy “Double Trend Line Principle” here)
So, traders, this is why I wanted to show this example to help you understand how important it is to follow the facts. The facts were supporting the bearish view here and there were no signs against it. When the facts do happen as we expected you can see how the price perfectly moved as per the plan. Because these are the kind of hints the market provides us at majority of the times and it’s our obligation as traders to be able to listen to these things that the market tells us and we should try to make the right actions accordingly.

 

Happy Trading!

Yordan Kuzmanov
Chief Trader at the Traders Academy Club

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