Hi Traders! AUDNZD short term forecast update and follow up is here. On January 13th I shared this “AUDNZD Technical Analysis And Short Term Forecast” post in our blog. In this post, let’s do a recap of this setup and see how it has developed now. If you would like to learn more about the way we trade and the technical analysis we use then check out the Traders Academy Club. Spoiler alert – free memberships are available!
My Idea
On the H4 chart, the price is currently moving inside a small range. This range is formed by the highs and lows reaching parallel support and resistance zones. The price which is moving inside this range has currently reached the top of it and is bouncing lower. In addition to this, we have a bearish divergence that has formed between the first high that has formed at 1.05359 and the second high that has formed at 1.06497 based on the MACD indicator which we may consider as evidence of bearish pressure. If we get a valid breakout below the strong support zone (marked in blue) we may then consider it as a validation for the bearish view and may expect the price to move lower further in the short term.
In this pair based on the above-mentioned analysis, my short term view was bearish until the key resistance zone holds. Also, I mentioned that “If we get a valid breakout below the strong support zone (marked in blue) we may then consider it as a validation for the bearish view and may expect the price to move lower further in the short term”. The price action didn’t follow my analysis here, the validation for the bearish view which is a valid breakout below the strong support zone didn’t happen. Currently the price has moved higher, broken above the key resistance zone and is holding above it, which is a contradictory sign opposing the bearish view. My current view on AUDNZD is neutral.
Even though we had facts supporting the bearish view here, the validation for the bearish view which is a valid breakout below the strong support zone didn’t happen here. Alternatively the price moved higher, broke above the key resistance zone and is holding above it which we may consider as a fact provided by the market opposing this bearish view. This is why we should always trade based on the facts and hints provided by the market and take the right actions according to that.
So traders, when it comes to trading, there are various important factors that we need to pay attention to, just because we have a good setup doesn’t mean that we can enter the trade randomly and it will pay us huge profits. First of all, we need to validate the entry and we should have a perfect entry plan to get into the trade which is a key factor when it comes to trading. This AUDNZD short term forecast is yet another good example of this scenario.
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Happy Trading!
Arvinth Akash
Traders Academy Club Team
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