European stocks and US futures were little changed as investors weighed the impact of fresh Chinese stimulus and looked ahead to major earnings this week.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 and S&P 500 futures struggled to advance following volatile trading in China, which reflected skepticism among some traders about Beijing’s latest efforts to jumpstart growth. The euro edged lower as investors anticipated an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank on Thursday.
China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an vowed more support for the real estate sector at a weekend briefing, but stopped short of producing a headline monetary stimulus figure. Investor attention turns next to results from big US banks, with Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. reporting Tuesday.
“Sentiment is back to being hopeful, but will also get into a seeing-is-believing mode to await actual numbers and more details on consumption and property measures, which were lacking,” said Xin-Yao Ng, an investment director at abrdn Asia Ltd.
In Europe, the ECB will probably advance the global push for monetary easing with an interest-rate cut that policymakers had all but ruled out just a month ago.
Concerns about French finances and German malaise had the euro on the back foot on Monday, while French bond futures were little changed. The region’s biggest economy is suffering a mild recession and output across the whole of 2024 will be flat, according to a Bloomberg survey.
“Clearly, softer activity data and faster disinflation have had an immediate impact on both ECB communication and markets, which are now pricing a 95% probability of a 25-basis point cut this week,” Barclays Plc strategists including Themistoklis Fiotakis wrote in a note to clients. “We view risks to European macro and interest rates as skewed to the downside, which creates scope for further euro weakness, particularly on crosses.”
Cash Treasuries trading is closed Monday for a US holiday.
China’s main CSI 300 Index rose as much as 2.4% after swinging between gains and losses earlier. It capped its worst week since late July on Friday. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developers rose more than 3%. Investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected China to deploy as much as 2 trillion yuan ($283 billion) in fresh fiscal stimulus on Saturday.
“There’s going to be consolidation and pullback,” Wendy Liu, chief Asia and China equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., told Bloomberg TV. “Structurally, it looks fine. Short-term, it’s not as satisfying.”
Key events this week:
- China trade balance, Monday
- India CPI, Monday
- UK unemployment rate and average weekly earnings, Tuesday
- Eurozone industrial production, Tuesday
- Canada CPI, Tuesday
- Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup earnings, Tuesday
- Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will be interviewed by Bloomberg editor-in-chief John Micklethwait at the Economic Club of Chicago, Tuesday
- New Zealand CPI, Wednesday
- Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia central bank interest-rate decisions, Wednesday
- UK CPI, PPI, RPI and house price index, Wednesday
- ASML, Morgan Stanley earnings, Wednesday
- Australia unemployment, Thursday
- Eurozone CPI, ECB rate decision, Thursday
- US retail sales, jobless claims, industrial production, business inventories, Thursday
- TSMC, Netflix earnings, Thursday
- Japan CPI, Friday
- China GDP, retail sales, industrial production, home prices, Friday
- UK retail sales, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed as of 8:14 a.m. London time
- S&P 500 futures were little changed
- Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
- Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
- The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed
- The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changed
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
- The euro was little changed at $1.0927
- The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 149.30 per dollar
- The offshore yuan fell 0.2% to 7.0842 per dollar
- The British pound was little changed at $1.3064
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin rose 2.1% to $64,090.77
- Ether rose 2.5% to $2,521.05
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.10%
- Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.26%
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.22%
Commodities
- Brent crude fell 1.4% to $77.95 a barrel
- Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,662.72 an ounce
