The past week delivered significant volatility across Forex and crypto markets, driven by major US macroeconomic releases. The postponed Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the highly anticipated US CPI inflation report provided fresh insight into the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate path.

In this weekly forecast, I will cover the macro backdrop and provide a technical outlook and trading scenarios for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and Bitcoin.

📊 Macro Overview: NFP & CPI Shift Market Expectations

The US job market surprised to the upside with Non-Farm Payrolls coming in at 130,000, almost double market expectations. After months of weakening labor data, this stronger print suggests that the US economy remains more resilient than previously anticipated.

From a monetary policy perspective, a healthier labor market reduces the urgency for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. While political and geopolitical pressures remain, the data-driven narrative points to a Fed that may remain cautious in easing policy too quickly.

On Friday, the US CPI report showed meaningful progress on inflation:

• Annual CPI: 2.4% (down from 2.7%)

• Core CPI (monthly): 0.3%

Although core inflation remains sticky, the overall trend continues to move closer to the Fed’s 2% target. This combination of resilient labor data and improving inflation creates a mixed macro environment—supportive for the USD in the short term, but with longer-term implications still dependent on upcoming Federal Reserve communication.

📅 Key Events This Week

• Monday: Bank holiday

• Tuesday: UK employment data, Canadian CPI

• Tuesday: RBNZ interest rate decision (New Zealand)

• Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes

The FOMC minutes will be especially important, as they may provide clues about the Fed’s internal stance on future rate cuts.

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📈 EUR/USD Technical Outlook – Final Push Before Reversal?

EUR/USD spent most of last week consolidating, which often precedes a larger directional move. Technically, the market remains within a bullish corrective structure, but signs of potential exhaustion are building on higher timeframes.

Key Scenarios:

• Bullish continuation:
  As long as the recent daily swing low holds, any pullbacks are likely to attract buyers, with the pair attempting another push higher. This move would help complete bearish divergence on the daily and weekly RSI, which could later support a medium-term reversal.

• Bearish reversal scenario (early stage):
  A confirmed break below the daily low with more than one impulsive wave, followed by acceptance below the volume profile support zone, would signal a potential trend shift and open the door for selling rallies.

Bias: Cautiously bullish in the short term, watching for divergence completion before considering medium-term shorts.

📈 GBP/USD Outlook – Bullish Pressure Not Over Yet

GBP/USD continues to display a similar structure to EUR/USD, with bullish momentum still intact despite early divergence signals on higher timeframes.

From a broader technical perspective, the pair has not yet completed a full reversal structure on the daily chart. The weekly chart highlights a key resistance zone that is yet to be fully tested, suggesting that one more upside leg remains possible.

Trading View:

• As long as the key support zone holds (recent swing lows aligned with a volume profile balance area), GBP/USD is likely to attempt another upside move—potentially retesting or marginally exceeding recent highs.

  

• The probability of immediate bearish continuation remains low (currently estimated below 30%).

• A sustained break below the recent swing low, confirmed by structure, would be required before adopting a sell-the-rallies approach.

Bias: Bullish continuation toward final highs before a larger corrective phase.

📉 GBP/JPY Outlook – Major Bearish Structure Emerging

GBP/JPY presents one of the clearest technical setups of the week. The pair has completed a multi-timeframe exhaustion pattern:

• Monthly: Three-wave structure into long-term supply with bearish divergence.

  

• Weekly: Strong bearish engulfing candle after a series of upper wicks – a classic sign of distribution.

  

• Daily: Fake breakout under bearish divergence, followed by lower lows on both price and momentum.

  

For the first time in a long bullish cycle, GBP/JPY is now printing lower lows, indicating a potential trend transition.

Trading View:

• Short-term corrective bounces are expected.

• As long as former support zones act as resistance, rallies are considered selling opportunities.

• Downside targets include a potential sweep of the 207 zone, with a deeper corrective structure possibly extending toward the 205 area.

Bias: Bearish – favor sell-the-rallies strategies.

₿ Bitcoin Outlook – Bearish Pressure Remains Dominant

Bitcoin remains under sustained bearish pressure. Despite short-term bounces, the broader structure continues to favor sellers:

• Price has broken a key support zone, which is now acting as resistance.

• The market remains below a falling trendline.

  

• Pullbacks into resistance areas align with potential bearish hidden divergence (lower highs on price with higher highs on MACD histogram).

  

From a structural perspective, Bitcoin may still be in the process of forming a medium-term bottom. However, until clear accumulation and reversal signals appear, the dominant strategy remains selling rallies within the broader downtrend.

Bias: Bearish continuation, with corrective bounces offering short opportunities.